FXUS61 KOKX 222338 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions remain unsettled this weekend, with a chance for locally heavy downpours tonight into Sunday. A few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe. 2) Drier conditions settle in early to mid next week, with temperatures averaging slightly below normal. 3) Showers and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights fall into tonight as mid level troughing digs south from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Though the parent surface low remains well to the north and west of the region, a weak wave of low pressure tracks north along an offshore frontal boundary tonight, passing nearby Sunday morning, before the attendant cold front moves through later in the day. Light rain or drizzle remains possible into this evening, mainly across eastern LI and coastal SE CT, before rain chances gradually increase throughout the forecast area with the approach of the frontal wave tonight. Strengthening SW flow aloft will advect deep moisture plume into the region during this time, with PWATs increasing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Rain coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature than widespread overnight, and some areas will remain much drier than others. But with the ample moisture available, as well as some instability Sunday morning observed in forecast soundings, can't rule out localized flooding if heavier activity persists or trains over one area. A strong to severe thunderstorm also can't be ruled out in the mid to late morning hours and SPC has kept the region outlined in a marginal (level 1/5) risk, with an isolated damaging wind gust possible. Despite the rain chances, the remainder of the weekend won't be a washout, and QPF overall is expected to be modest, on the order of a quarter to half inch. Given the nature of the convective activity, there could be a few areas that pick up a quick couple of inches of rain should cells prove more persistent, but this would be quite localized if it were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Beyond the frontal passage, the closed low trough continues to shift into the Northeast, keeping mid level heights low. Surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest, with westerly flow persisting through midweek. Given the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, expect a fair amount of stratcu development Monday afternoon, and can't rule out a few pop up showers across the interior. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo for late August, daytime highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Guidance continues to indicate the approach of the next frontal system from the west along with a digging upper level trough late this week. This will bring a return to a more unsettled weather pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. It's too early at this time to narrow down any potential severe threats from this system. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south this afternoon into tonight, passing through some terminals Sunday morning. A cold front then moves through Sunday night. All terminals lower to IFR late tonight with showers and eventually improve back to VFR Sunday afternoon. Although cannot rule out thunder as early as early this evening, better overall chances (noted with PROB30) start after sunrise on Sunday with the approach and passage of the low center and subsequent approach of a weak cold front/trough later in the day. Winds mainly E to SE under 10kt through tonight, shiftingbriefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... For all terminals, IFR might not happen tonight with conds instead remaining MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday through Wednesday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and -shra PM. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the coastal waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds with a weak pressure gradient in place through mid next week. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the rest of today is low to moderate. A moderate risk is expected for both Sunday and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC/DR