FXUS61 KOKX 230604
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for aviation with 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Conditions remain unsettled this weekend, with a chance for 
locally heavy downpours overnight into Sunday. A few storms on 
Sunday could be strong to severe.

2) Drier conditions settle in early to mid next week, with
temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

3) Showers and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of 
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Heights fall overnight as mid level troughing digs south from 
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Though the parent surface 
low remains well to the north and west of the region, a weak 
wave of low pressure tracks north along an offshore frontal 
boundary tonight, passing nearby Sunday morning, before the 
attendant cold front moves through later in the day.

Strengthening SW flow aloft will advect deep moisture plume 
into the region during this time, with PWATs increasing to 
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Rain coverage is expected to be more 
scattered in nature than widespread overnight, and some areas 
will remain much drier than others. But with the ample moisture 
available, as well as some instability Sunday morning observed 
in forecast soundings, can't rule out localized flooding if 
heavier activity persists or trains over one area. A strong to 
severe thunderstorm also can't be ruled out in the mid to late 
morning hours and SPC has kept the region outlined in a marginal
(level 1/5) risk, with an isolated damaging wind gust possible.

Despite the rain chances, the remainder of the weekend won't be
a washout, and QPF overall is expected to be modest, on the 
order of a quarter to half inch. Given the nature of the 
convective activity, there could be a few areas that pick up a 
quick couple of inches of rain should cells prove more 
persistent, but this would be quite localized if it were to occur.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... 
Beyond the frontal passage, the closed low trough continues to 
shift into the Northeast, keeping mid level heights low. Surface
high pressure builds in from the Midwest, with westerly flow 
persisting through midweek.

Given the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, expect a fair
amount of stratcu development Monday afternoon, and can't rule
out a few pop up showers across the interior. Otherwise, dry 
conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain a few degrees 
below climo for late August, daytime highs generally in the 70s 
to low 80s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Guidance continues to indicate the approach of the next frontal
system from the west along with a digging upper level trough 
late this week. 

This will bring a return to a more unsettled weather pattern
with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
It's too early at this time to narrow down any potential severe
threats from this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front
for mid to late evening. 

Any VFR conditions should give way to MVFR overnight and early this
morning. IFR becomes increasingly likely during the morning push,
although some terminals will remain MVFR through the remainder of
the morning. Showers become increasingly likely over the next few
hours, especially closer to 08-09z through 12-13z. PROB30 for TSRA
for the mid to late morning until 18-19z. All terminals eventually 
improve back to VFR this afternoon. 

Winds shift briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around 
noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in
the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Brief IFR may occur forthe early morning towards the start of the
morning push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: VFR. Light winds.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday 
afternoon.

Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the coastal waters are expected to remain below 
Small Craft Advisory thresholds with a weak pressure gradient 
in place through mid next week.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the rest of today is low to 
moderate. A moderate risk is expected for both Sunday and Monday. 
The swell will be primarily from the SE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/DR