FXUS61 KOKX 230835 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 435 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in enhanced wording for thunderstorm attributes into today with possible heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail with some thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through today with low pressure and cold front moving through. Some thunderstorms could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening. Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back in Monday night into midweek. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward. This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up convective chances. Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening. This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast because national blend of models is not reflecting this potential in its forecast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday night through midweek with high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight through midweek. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system. The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than the showers. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front for mid to late evening. Primarily MVFR through early this morning. IFR becomes increasingly likely into the morning push, although some terminals will remain MVFR through the remainder of the morning. A line of showers with embedded thunder approaching KEWR and KTEB towers with impact until about 1030z with TEMPO group for TSRA at these terminals. PROB30 groups for TSRA at most terminals for the mid to late morning until 18-19z. All terminals eventually improve back to VFR this afternoon. Winds shift briefly SE to S this morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief IFR may occur for the morning push with amendments possible for TSRA for the next few hours and later this morning as well. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late Sunday night: VFR. Light winds. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM