FXUS61 KOKX 232330 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 730 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 00z TAFs and latest surf forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into early evening ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could have strong wind gusts with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather impacts are not expected. 3) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front and shortwave will provide lift this afternoon into early evening. This will combine with weak capping and sufficient MLCAPEs for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms until shortly after sundown. Strong to locally severe wind gusts would be the main impact. Looks like chances are limited to parts of NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley area, and into SW CT. Might need to extend chances for both showers and thunderstorms farther south, but will go with a dry forecast for the southern zones dry for now and monitor radar trends. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong gust could be possible on Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through this evening with weak high pressure building in thereafter. A few isolated showers north and west of NYC terminals could lead to brief MVFR conditions, mainly for KSWF. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period. Winds lighten this evening, with similar flow expected on Monday. Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high as 20 to 25 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... A few gusts late Monday afternoon could approach 30 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for Monday followed by a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for the Atlantic facing beaches. SE swell on both days is anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC