FNUS76 KOTX 221917
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for Tolo Fire...NPS
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1217 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 PDT on August 22. 

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

Dynamic weather day with shifting winds and chances for 
thunderstorms. The area is currently in a break of showers but the
threat will increase again this afternoon between 1300-2000. A 
few storms could be strong with erratic outflow winds to 50 mph 
and brief downpours. General winds will be out of the west- 
northwest and will increase this evening, with the strongest winds
expected on ridgelines. East aspects will be sheltered with 
lighter west-northwest winds less than 10 mph. Breezy west-
northwest winds will persist on ridgelines overnight into Sunday 
with cooler temperatures and higher humidity.


If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
***************************************************************
Forecasts for 20 foot wind speeds (valleys and ridge tops) are
10 minute averages reflecting RAWS wind.
***Ventilation Index is derived from transport wind
   multiplied by the mixing height divided by 100.
   Categories: low (< 200), moderate (200-500), 
   high (500-800), and very high (> 800). 
***************************************************************

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers
                    and 40% chance of thunderstorms. 
CWR.................10 percent. 
Chance of lightning.40 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 66. 
Min humidity........30-35 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 2 to 5 mph shifting to west-northwest
                    3 to 6 mph around 1500 hours. Ridgeline winds west
                    7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms. 
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph. 
Ventilation Index...Moderate (203). 

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of showers and 
                    30% chance thunderstorms until 2000 hours. 
CWR.................20 percent. 
Chance of lightning.30 percent until 2000 hours. 
Min temperature.....Around 45. 
Max humidity........90-95 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest 2 to 5 mph on sheltered aspects. 
                    West 7 to 12 mph on ridgelines. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. 
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph. 
Ventilation Index...Low (184). 

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. 20% chance of rain showers
                    in the morning. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
Chance of lightning.10 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 55. 
Min humidity........70-75 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest 2 to 5 mph on sheltered aspects. 
                    West 8 to 14 mph on ridgelines.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....West 12 to 15 mph. 
Ventilation Index...Moderate (332). 

$$
Forecaster...VT
Requested by...Lucas Bonanno
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620244.0/OTX
.DELDT 08/22/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wapsc@firenet.gov