FXUS66 KOTX 072339 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 439 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (10 to 20 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington Tuesday evening and expand across Eastern WA Wednesday afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (10 to 20 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday evening through Wednesday: Relative humidity has fallen into the teens across much of the region as of Tuesday afternoon with poor recoveries expected Tuesday night. Gusty southwest winds will persist Tuesday afternoon and evening across the western Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, and west winds will increase Tuesday evening along the Cascade foothills Thursday evening as a dry cold front approaches. Consequently, Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 10 PM Tuesday for the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas northward up the Okanogan Valley. The cold front will crawl inland overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, bringing slight cooling and a shift into zonal flow. Winds will remain breezy across Central WA Tuesday night before strengthening and expanding across the rest of Eastern WA and North ID Wednesday. A second round of Red Flag warnings have been issued for Wednesday across these zones where fuels have been declared dry enough to support fire weather highlights. Widespread westerly gusts of 25-30 mph will spread over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane area, Northeast WA, and North ID. The windiest spots near Cascade gaps and over exposed areas of the Basin will see gusts up to 30-40 mph. While not exceptionally strong, these winds will meet critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Ahead of the front, mid-level moisture moving up from Oregon will create enough instability to bring low (but nonzero) chances for elevated convection. A few hi-res models continue to depict isolated thunderstorms tracking from southwest to northeast across the Cascade Crest, over the eastern third of WA, and over North ID late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Any precip generated with these storms will have to fall through a large layer of dry air before reaching the surface. Thus, most if not all precip will likely evaporate before hitting the ground. Confidence is low in there being enough lift to trigger storms, but given the dry boundary layer and critical fire weather conditions expected for Wednesday, any lightning strikes would pose a fire hazard. The current forecast carries a 10 to 15 percent chance of sprinkles and a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. Behind the front, precipitable water values fall back to 60 to 80 percent of normal, keeping humidity levels low despite slightly cooler temperatures. The Cascades and east slopes will be the exception, where a deep marine layer spilling over from the west side will keep humidities higher (25 to 35 percent). Thursday through Saturday: Elevated west-southwest winds persist Thursday under continued zonal flow. While winds speeds will be lighter than those on Wednesday, widespread breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 25 mph will maintain elevated fire weather concerns. Friday will see similar wind speeds and gusts out of the west-southwest. By Saturday, there is growing confidence that the next trough will shift into the region, bringing another round of gusty winds. The latest NBM indicates a 40 to 70 percent chance of sustained wind speeds exceeding 20 mph across Central WA. Chances climb as high as 80 percent down the Okanogan Valley. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR weather will prevail across the region through the 00z TAF cycle. Light to modest breezes at most of the TAF sites will subside overnight, with the exception of KEAT and potentially KPUW. At KEAT, northwesterly shift and increase will likely occur between 00-02z, with occasional gusts to 30kts possible and through the Cascade gaps overnight. Lower confidence for breezy southwest winds (gusts 20-25kts) reaching KPUW overnight. A dry cold front will then move through the region Wednesday morning, which will cause breezy to windy westerly winds to emerge through the day. There is also a low chance of sprinkles (10-15%) and dry thunderstorms (5%) between 06z and 18z with this front, though confidence remains too low to mention in the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence for sprinkles affecting the TAF sites, very low confidence in thunderstorm chances. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 62 88 56 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 62 87 57 84 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 57 83 51 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 64 92 60 90 59 93 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 57 89 53 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 61 87 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 59 84 56 81 54 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 91 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 87 60 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 92 55 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$