FXUS66 KOTX 080704 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1204 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Wednesday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (5 to 10 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington and expand across Eastern WA this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (5 to 10 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday: A strong low off the Canadian coast will move inland and usher in a strong dry cold front through the forecast area later this morning. Winds will increase across much of central Washington, with widespread wind gusts 20 to 30 mph expected and wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected along the Cascade gaps. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to be widespread today. Current models show an 8 to 10 mb pressure gradient between SEA and COE. These higher wind gusts could result in blowing objects alongside challenging driving for high profile vehicles. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for a significant portion of central and eastern Washington from 11 AM to 10 PM tonight. Areas included in the Red Flag Warning are the the Okanogan Valley, Cascade foothills, Waterville Plateau, Western Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Colville Reservation, and Northeast Washington foothills area. Ahead of the front, a weak vorticity maximum will move through alongside mid level moisture, resulting in a small (5 to 10 percent chance) but impactful chance for elevated across eastern Washington later this morning. A couple hundred Joules of CAPE with steep lower level lapse rates and an inverted V sounding will support a low chance for dry thunderstorms, with very little precipitation expected. While chances are low for any thunderstorm development, this is a high impact scenario when combined with already critical fire weather conditions later in the day, as any lightning strikes will pose a fire hazard. Any convection that forms will be monitored extremely closely this morning. Thursday through Sunday: Zonal flow following the frontal passage will keep winds elevated on Thursday, particularly across the Cascade gaps. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, roughly 50% of clusters show another trough moving through the area, which would result in continued fire weather concerns through the first part of the weekend. The other 50% of clusters show the trough staying just offshore enough to not impact winds as intensely. Conditions will continue to be warm and dry with temperatures in the mid to high 80s. Monday through Tuesday: Clusters then begin favoring a broad ridge setting up and strengthening over much of the Western US at the beginning of next work week. This will result in warming temperatures, with long-term models projecting highs to return to the 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Alongside clusters showing good agreement in this ridge, the CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Additionally, the CPC's probabilistic 8-14 day outlook hazards page shows a 20-40% chance for extreme heat in southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout the forecast period. Winds have currently relaxed at every TAF site but EAT, where they will continue being elevated overnight. A cold front will move through the forecast area tomorrow morning, increasing winds around 15-18Z for many of the TAF sites. Wind gusts will be 20-25kts, and EAT has the best chance at seeing 25-30kt wind gusts. Aside from EAT and MWH which will stay breezy through 06Z tomorrow, winds will relax around 01-03Z. There is a low chance of sprinkles (10-15%) and dry thunderstorms (5%) between 06z and 18z with this front, though confidence remains too low to mention in the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence for sprinkles affecting the TAF sites, very low confidence in thunderstorm chances. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 89 57 85 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 87 57 84 56 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 51 81 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 93 60 90 59 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 90 53 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 87 56 84 55 85 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 84 56 81 54 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 54 90 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 87 61 88 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 57 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$