FXUS66 KOTX 162350 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 450 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. - Cold temperatures with frost expected across much of the region for Sunday morning. - Dry weather continues through at least the middle of next week with seasonable temperatures && .SYNOPSIS... Friday will remain dry with mild temperatures and light winds. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will develop with the passage of a cold front. Little to no precipitation will occur with the front and dry conditions expected through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures cooling to near normal over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will be displaced to east of region heading into the overnight period. Moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will spread high level clouds across the region. Otherwise, moisture will be lacking ahead of this front will little to no precipitation expected; the Cascade crest will see light precipitation with it and that's about all. The front will bring significant cooling and tighten the westerly gradient with winds picking up throughout the day on Saturday. Westerly winds sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-35 mph will be common across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin. Peak wind speeds will be achieved in the afternoon before relaxing quickly as the sun sets in the evening. Light weight objects may be blown around if not secured (e.g. Halloween decorations). Patchy blowing dust is also possible near recently worked fields, but much of the crops planted this time of year have been done so already and the expectation is that the risk of blowing dust is decreasing compared to late September into early October. Winds may also result in choppy lakes that pose a risk for those on small crafts. Sunday night through Wednesday night: Shortwave ridging of high pressure then builds in behind the exiting cold front by Sunday. There will be a considerable amount of drier air that pushes in behind the cold front on Saturday. A clear night with dry air in place will result in strong radiational cooling as winds weaken. Low temperatures Sunday morning figure to be on the chilly side. Temperatures in the northern mountain valleys are expected to cool down into the upper 20s, especially for the colder more sheltered areas. Much of the Columbia Basin is expected to see temperatures down into the low to mid 30s. This will lead frost formation and anyone that protected plants from the freezing temperatures earlier in the week should plan to cover sensitive vegetation Sunday night as well. Areas at the tail end of the growing season that may see frost Sunday morning includes the Wenatchee Area and Moses Lake Area. The Lewiston-Clarkston Valley is less likely to see temperatures cold enough for frost as dew points are expected to be above freezing with lows closer to around 40 degrees. The weather then remains dry heading through the first part of next week. An upper level trough deepens in the eastern Pacific with a low closing off but it will dig far enough south to primarily bring precipitation to California by Tuesday into Wednesday. The Northwest will be under split flow with the northern branch of the jet stream directing moisture into British Columbia. Winds remain light and temperatures near normal. Thursday into Friday: The upper level low that pushes into California looks to eject northeast across the Great Basin and may spread light precipitation primarily over the Idaho Panhandle by Thursday. We also may see light precipitation across the Cascade crest at this time with snow levels dropping down to around 5,000 feet Thursday night. There is the potential for a light dusting of snow in the mountains in the Cascades. The probability of any precipitation to occur over the Cascade crest and in the Idaho Panhandle is between 30-40%. Not impactful precipitation by any means and not expected to produce much wetting precipitation as well. The dry start to our fall looks to continue and it isn't helping with the ongoing drought situation that we are seeing across the region. /SVH && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions are likely through the period. A cold front will approach the Northwest Region today. Drier easterly winds ahead of the front will promote VFR conditions with some high level cirrus clouds filtering across. Winds will be particularly breezy at KPUW sustained at 15-18 kts into the early afternoon (until 21Z) before decreasing a bit later on. Cold front passage will be in the late morning on Saturday between 15-18Z at KEAT and KMWH to early afternoon 18Z-22Z at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. A brief period of low level wind shear is expected at KPUW between 15-17Z Saturday morning before westerly winds aloft are able to mix down to the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 44 64 35 59 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 42 63 35 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 64 36 61 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 44 71 41 65 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 67 29 61 32 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 61 32 58 35 60 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 61 36 59 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 39 68 31 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 66 36 61 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 68 33 61 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$