FXUS66 KOTX 191158 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 458 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: A warming and drying trend will commence through the week for the Inland Northwest as strong high pressure off the coast blocks the region from systems approaching from the west. Temperatures will increase from the 60s and 70s to the 70s and 80s by Friday. There will be another round of showers with very isolated lightning in the northern half of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon thanks to lingering boundary layer moisture and a weakly unstable airmass. With SBCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg, any shower activity will be fairly weak. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. The best chances for these showers will be between noon to 8 PM today. A shortwave trough currently in the Yukon territory of Canada will drop down into southern Alberta Wednesday afternoon, bringing a backdoor dry cold front to the Inland NW Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this approaching wave, there will be breezy northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph Okanogan Valley. The remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Tuesday: There is good agreement from the global ensemble suite of a trough bringing a cooldown and chances for precipitation by later this weekend and into early next week. There are some question marks on the evolution of this trough but it is a promising sign of more precipitation coming to the INW before our dry season really kicks in. The degree to which we cool down will be dependent on whether we can get the trough overhead to spark convective showers. The coldest 25% of the global ensemble has temperatures at 500 mb around -24 to -31 degrees C by Monday night into Tuesday, similar to the trough that brought cool and showery conditions this past weekend. In the coldest 10% of scenarios, snow levels in the Cascades would drop to around 3500 feet Monday and Tuesday. There is quite a bit of spread with the 90th percentile snow level Monday and Tuesday around 9500 feet. Folks headed out into the high backcountry during this time period will want to keep a close eye on how this trough evolves early next week. This period will need to be monitored for breezy winds as well. /DB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Satellite reveals a mid level cloud deck across northeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle early this morning with ceilings above 7kft early this morning. This will limit fog development this morning, with widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far northeast Washington and north Idaho. with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG- KSFF- KCOE around 5-10% Tuesday afternoon. General winds will become breezy from the southwest around 20Z across much of the Inland Northwest with gusts up to 20 knots and wane after sunset. The speed increase will be delayed slightly for the Cascade valleys with sustained winds 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots after 00Z at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 67 44 71 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 65 44 69 43 71 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Pullman 64 43 66 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 69 47 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 70 39 74 38 76 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 65 42 68 41 70 46 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 64 43 67 42 72 46 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 73 45 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 50 77 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 73 47 77 48 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$