FXUS66 KOTX 192144 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 244 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday: Region remains on the backside of ridge extending into northern BC. Tuesdays afternoons instability will subside and calmer conditions expected tonight. Most of the region will remain in a dry, warming trend for the next several days. Weak shortwaves will continue to move North to South along the backside of the ridge. Along with afternoon heat, the waves will generate enough instability to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Best locations continue to be Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle with a 10-20% probability. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. Winds will also be breezy down the Okanogan Valley with gusts near 30 mph for Wednesday afternoon. The ridge shifts east and over the Inland Northwest. It will keep Thursday and Friday drier and warmer than previous days. Saturday will start a transition period as the the ridge starts to breakdown and trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Highs for the period will be in the 70s to low 80s. Minor heat risk is expected across the region. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. Sunday through Wednesday: Ensembles are in good agreement with the ridge breakdown and trough arrival. The main difference is timing. The GEFS is pushing it across the region starting late Sunday through Monday. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower. Either way, the start of next week is expected to cooler and wetter than the end of this week. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 ft to perhaps bring light snow for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Precip amounts are expected to be light with a range of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far northeast Washington and north Idaho. with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE around 5-10% this afternoon. Winds will increase 20Z across much of the Inland Northwest with gusts up to 20 knots and wane after sunset. The speed increase will be delayed slightly for the Cascade valleys with sustained winds 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots after 00Z at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 70 43 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 45 68 42 71 47 74 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 43 66 41 69 44 73 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 47 71 47 74 49 78 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Colville 40 74 37 76 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 67 41 70 45 73 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 67 41 71 45 75 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 45 77 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 50 77 52 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 47 77 47 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$