FXUS64 KOUN 080256 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 956 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today across southeast/south central and western Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a slight shift in the pattern aloft. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A few showers have developed in the cumulus field across western Oklahoma along an axis from Woodward to Duncan and Ardmore. The CAMs (mainly the Hi-res NAM and the ARW) only marginally showed this area and of course the NBM had no clue, so have added some low POPs along the axis of the best cumulus field into western Oklahoma. These storms should be isolated and mainly diurnal, but mesoanalysis does show high Downdraft CAPE values (~1500 J/kg) that any strong, established core could produce some strong winds. Later tonight, a number of the CAMs have some signal of at least isolated convection in southeast Oklahoma toward sunrise, similar to what we saw with the ACCAS field this morning. So have added an area of slight chance POPs across the southeast early Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Some lingering showers may persist in the morning in the southeast with additional development of isolated showers/storms again in the afternoon southeast. A shortwave moves through the central Rockies on Thursday and into the central Plains Thursday night. Storms will likely develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon, and push into the Plains Thursday night. Although the best chances of storms will be farther north, there is still potential for some of these storms to move across northern Oklahoma. Warmer highs are expected Wednesday and Thursday as low-level flow veers with more of a downslope component, and the low-level thermal axis shift east from the High Plains toward the lower plains. With this veering low-level flow also comes lower dewpoints, so heat index values will be kept somewhat in check by the lower humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Temperatures are expected to be cooler into the weekend as the ridge remains across the Desert Southwest, eventually moving northward across the rockies. Although temperatures will be cooler, the low- level moisture will increase as well. In turn, heat indices will remain in the 100-105 F range through the weekend. Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will be possible through Sunday. Similar temperatures/heat indices are expected into early next week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Skies are clearing out tonight with VFR conditions expected to continue. Winds will shift to south-southwesterly at most sites tomorrow morning and remain that way during the day. There will be a few showers in southeast Oklahoma, but precipitation chances at DUA of 10-20 percent don't quite justify a PROB30 as of the 06Z TAF issuance. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 94 72 99 78 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 97 73 100 77 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 97 74 100 78 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 97 72 101 76 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 90 70 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 94 74 97 79 / 20 20 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...04