FXUS63 KPAH 192353 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 653 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State over the next 24 hours. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow morning for portions of the region. Swaths of 1 to 2" are anticipated, along with the potential for localized amounts in excess of 3". Adjustments to the watch location may be needed with time. - After a relative lull in rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday, an unsettled pattern is shaping up Friday through the holiday weekend and potentially beyond. There is a high probability (80-95% chance) of most of the region observing at least 2" of rain through next Tuesday, with even some potential at amounts in excess of 4" (20-40% chance). - Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal tomorrow and Thursday (low to mid 70s). While some moderation is expected through the holiday weekend (upper 70s to lower 80s), we will still average slightly below normal through much of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is draped from the Great Lakes southwestward across IL/MO and into eastern OK early this afternoon. South-southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary has led to an influx of low level moisture into our region with dewpoints into the lower 70s. The morning complex across Missouri fizzled out and has left behind quite a bit of clearing east of the Mississippi River. Some isolated convection has already popped up from the MO bootheel into western KY. Additional activity should continue to fire up through the afternoon aided by upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep layer shear isn't very impressive though, struggling to reach even 25-30 kts of 0-6 km shear. Mid level lapse rates are generally 6C or below as well. However, low level lapse rates are rather steep combined with ample low level moisture that likely will be enough to support at least pulse severe storms this afternoon. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, but can't rule out some hail with a few of the stronger cores. Majority of our region (except southern two tiers of counties) remain in a slight risk from SPC. A disturbance aloft will pivot across the lower Ohio Valley tonight which should provide additional forcing as the front makes passage to support more widespread showers and storms. There is some concern for training convection that may lead to swaths of heavy rainfall in excess of 2", and localized upwards of 3". Placement amongst the CAMs is varied, with some suggesting heaviest amounts further south across more of west KY. In coordination with neighboring offices, have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of our region. For now have confined it to areas that received 1-2", localized 3", over the past 24 hours as these areas are more susceptible to additional heavy rain. FFG is generally only 1.5" per hour in the watch area. Will monitor trends though as adjustments to the watch are possible, with southward expansion seeming to be the most likely. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will filter in drier air into our region Wednesday night into Thursday as the frontal boundary sinks south of our cwa. Can't rule out some lingering activity in our south during this time though. Another shortwave across the Southern Plains will induce a surface low to develop and push the front back north into our area Thursday night into Friday. This will lead to additional waves of showers and storms spreading across the region. The overall pattern through the holiday weekend looks quite unsettled with daily chances continuing. Upper flow continues to be southwesterly helping to usher in ample low level moisture into our area. Temperatures will be held in check thanks to the clouds and precip around, but humidity levels will remain high as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Guidance suggests the wet pattern looks to continue into next week as additional disturbances move through. LREF has an 80-95% chance at receiving at least 2" through next Tuesday, with a 25-40% chance at 4". The ECMWF and GFS both have an expensive area of 5+ inches over the next 9 days. There is a chance they are overdone a bit, and when in drought it's hard to get out, but the trends certainly are in favor of some beneficial rains through the end of the month. Just hopefully we don't get too much too quick, which is a distinct possibility, which could result in increasing flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered TSRA may develop later this evening along the cold front as it passes from 02Z at KMVN to 09Z at KPAH and KOWB. A wave on the front may muddle wind directions after 06Z and hold up its progress a bit. This will also provide another chance of TSRA. Ceilings will drop to MVFR levels shortly behind the front and will eventually drop to IFR levels overnight. IFR ceilings are likely to stay all day. Light rain/drizzle could result in LIFR conditions through the day at KPAH and the afternoon at KOWB, while MVFR visibilities in light rain will prevail farther north and west through most of the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ILZ083-085>094. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DRS