FXUS63 KPAH 231108
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The week will begin on a dry note, but small chances of heat
  of the day showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday 
  through Tuesday in southeast Missouri. 

- The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire
  region is forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

- High temperatures will warm from the lower 80s early this week
  to the upper 80s by late week, along with increasing humidity
  levels.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The region will remain sandwiched between the upper level
ridging to the SW across the southwest CONUS and the trough to 
the NE across the northeast CONUS this week. At the surface, 
high pressure will build into the area today through early 
Monday. As a result, most of the forecast area is expected to 
remain dry today into the middle of the work week, with the
exception of SEMO. Here, several small shortwaves are forecast 
to move through the area almost daily, bringing 15-30% chances 
of showers, typically in the late afternoon/evening and into 
the overnight hours. 

Rain chances for the entire region will increasing beginning 
Wednesday, when another trough is expected to move through, with
widespread low PoPs across the region. Daily afternoon 
temperatures are expected start in the low 80s today through the
middle of the work week. However, temperatures will climb into 
the upper 80s for the second half of the week. Additionally, 
dewpoints will become more humid, in the upper 60s and low 70s 
as well. This will be in response to a warm front lifting 
northward through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Lingering shallow fog invof CGI, PAH, and MVN will diminish by
13z as boundary layer mixing increases. High pressure will bring
steady NW around 4-8 kts through the afternoon, along with FEW-
SCT diurnal CU with bases around 4-5kft. Tonight, winds will
relax to light and variable under passing high cirrus. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AZ/DWS
DISCUSSION...AZ
AVIATION...AZ/DWS