FXUS61 KPBZ 081131
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
731 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion, and to remove mention of
morning showers. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Morning fog, then mainly dry with limited convection 
potential today

2) Unsettled pattern through Friday, with lesser chances for
showers/storms over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Earlier isolated showers have faded. Lingering low-level
moisture underneath an inversion has led to another round of fog
and stratus, similar to recent mornings. This should mix out
through the morning. Expect most of the day to be dry for much 
of the area today under flat ridging and capping warmth aloft. 
Surface convergence near a weakening surface boundary could 
result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, 
especially east of Pittsburgh. Precipitable water is progged to 
be lower than recent days, ranging from 1.2 to 1.4 inches east 
of Pittsburgh, though the flow aloft is weak. Expect any flood 
potential to be very low and localized. 

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
A shortwave trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest
tonight, approaching and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region late
tonight into Thursday. An increase in showers and thunderstorms
is expected. The most numerous coverage is expected to be south
of Pittsburgh, where the best moisture and upper level support
is progged. Shear is expected to be around 20kt, with ML CAPE
ranging from around 500 j/kg north of I-80, to around 1200 j/kg
south of I-70. This should result in a limited potential for
severe weather. 

Another, stronger shortwave is progged for a Friday passage.
Maintained categorical POPs for showers and thunderstorms.
Instability should be limited with existing cloud cover through
the day, though precipitable water is expected to increase.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Current NBM
probabilities of 1 inch of rain range from 35 to near 50
percent. 

A surface boundary is progged to set up across the Lower Ohio 
Valley on Saturday into Sunday. This will keep shower and 
thunderstorm chances in the forecast, with the highest POPs 
south of PIT. The overall severe weather and flood potential is
expected to be low over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low fog and stratus has brought IFR to LIFR conditions this
morning with the worst of the restrictions in areas that
received rain in the past 24 hours. With mixing, expect 
restrictions will erode shortly after 12z for most but may hang 
on an hour or two longer for FKL and DUJ. The CU rule and model 
soundings indicate a scattered to broken VFR cumulus layer is 
likely through the day. Weak surface convergence and aid in lift
from orographic ascent could produce a few showers and storms 
east of Pittsburgh, but coverage should overall be less today 
than the previous few days as warmer mid-level air puts a lid on
updraft strength. Maintained a PROB30 -TSRA mention for LBE, 
MGW and DUJ for this potential. Elsewhere, forcing looks to be 
too minimal to support any development.

Light west-northwest wind today will relax to light and 
variable overnight tonight with some cirrus. A shortwave will 
track up through the Ohio Valley and likely spark off additional
showers after midnight in northern West Virginia primarily 
confining impacts to MGW. Expect that we will see another round
of fog develop in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning with the
light wind, remnant ground moisture, and scattering of clouds, 
again most dense where rain falls today. Confidence is lower 
for MGW even if rain does fall there today as additional showers
overnight would negate dense fog development.

Outlook... 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring periodicrestrictions again on Thursday. More widespread showers and 
possible thunderstorms are expected Friday with a crossing 
shortwave. Additional morning fog and stratus is possible 
through the weekend, with shower/thunderstorm potential mainly 
south of PIT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM/CL
AVIATION...MLB