FXUS61 KPBZ 081759 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast, as overall model trends have remained fairly stable. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh 2) Unsettled pattern Thursday through Saturday, with at least some potential for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns, especially south of I-70. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Flat ridging aloft, along with drier air above 700mb, is keeping clouds and showers suppressed to the north and west of Pittsburgh. To the east and south of the city, better overall moisture (1.3 to 1.5 inch precipitable water) and terrain/low- level convergence are helping to fuel isolated to scattered showers. To this point, the capping and dry air aloft is stunting updraft growth for the most part, keeping cloud tops warmer than -10C and thus preventing lightning generation. Continued updraft attempts may eventually allow convection to get tall enough for a few thunderstorms, but shear and CAPE profiles remain unfavorable for severe weather. Brief downpours are possible and overall weak flow is encouraging slow storm motion, but any instances of heavier rainfall and/or potential flooding issues should remain very isolated at best, limited to locations that see multiple cells. Activity will decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as daytime heating is lost, and a brief areawide precipitation lull is expected during the mid to late evening. Another round of at least patchy fog is in the cards given the weak flow and lingering low-level moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2... A dampening shortwave trough is forecast to ride up the Ohio Valley tonight, with the axis crossing the Central Appalachians on Thursday. With the deeper moisture and best mid-level support/weak low-level convergence accompanying this wave, increased coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms is expected mainly south of I-70 after 06Z Thursday, and remaining generally south of Pittsburgh during the daylight hours. Continued weak shear and low downdraft CAPE values should once again keep severe weather threats to a minimum. However, there may be a small uptick in heavy rain/flooding potential. HREF means suggest 1.6 to 1.8 inch precipitable water values tomorrow afternoon, and max precipitation progs indicate that isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals may be possible in areas that receive multiple storms. At this time, flooding probabilities remain too limited in scope to consider a Flood Watch. A somewhat more vigorous shortwave is slated for a Friday passage. The track appears similar to the Thursday disturbance, but better areawide moisture potential plus some upper support from the right entrance region of a northeast CONUS upper jet should promote more widespread rain coverage. Again, severe weather threats remain muted, but rain totals/flood threats will need to be monitored south of I-70, as this region is once again pegged by ensembles as having higher precip totals. WPC notes this as well, bringing a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall south of Pittsburgh on Friday. A boundary may set up shop near the Mason/Dixon Line on Saturday, keeping higher rain chances once again to the south of Pittsburgh, and potentially continuing an isolated flood risk there. Passage of the front Sunday will bring a drier trend to the region that is expected to continue into the middle of next week, along with a slow warming trend. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered to broken VFR cumulus layer is likely through the day. Weak surface convergence and aid in lift from orographic ascent could produce a few showers and storms east of Pittsburgh, but coverage should overall be less today than the previous few days as warmer mid-level air puts a lid on updraft strength. Maintained a TEMPO -TSRA mention for LBE, MGW and DUJ for this potential. Elsewhere, forcing looks to be too minimal to support any development. Light west-northwest wind today will relax to light and variable overnight tonight with some cirrus. A shortwave will track up through the Ohio Valley and likely spark off additional showers after midnight in northern West Virginia primarily confining impacts to MGW. Expect that we will see another round of fog develop in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning with the light wind, remnant ground moisture, and scattering of clouds, again most dense where rain falls today. Confidence in impacts at any TAF site is too low to be included at this time, but will continue to be evacuated throughout the afternoon. Confidence is even lower for MGW even if rain does fall there today as additional showers overnight would negate dense fog development. Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring periodic restrictions again on Thursday primarily south and east of Pittsburgh. More widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected Friday with a crossing shortwave. Additional morning fog and stratus is possible through the weekend, with shower/thunderstorm potential mainly south of PIT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...MLB/JNC