FXUS61 KPBZ 091152
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
752 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A slight increase in shower and thunderstorm chances were
included for Saturday, as a surface boundary stalls south of the
area. Dry and warmer weather is expected for next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, more numerous
south of Pittsburgh

2) Unsettled pattern continues through Saturday, with periodic
showers and thunderstorms

3) Mainly dry and warm Sunday into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
A shortwave trough will continue to track out of the
Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley region this morning, with a passage
across the Upper Ohio Valley region later this morning into the
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms have already
developed south of I-70 in advance of the shortwave, with
additional convection expected to develop through the day. ML
CAPE is progged to range from 750-1500 j/kg during peak heating,
with 0-6km shear around 20kt. There is some drying aloft, though
DCAPE values generally ranging from 350-500 j/kg. While some
storms could contain gusty wind if they are able to tap in to
the somewhat drier air aloft, an organized severe weather
potential appears minimal. The Storm Predication Center has
added a portion of the area near and south of I- 70 to a
Marginal Risk for severe weather today.

Precipitable water increases today, with values ranging from 1.6
to 1.8 inches. The highest levels are progged south of I-70.
Storms should be moving today, with storm motion generally
around 25kt. There is a potential for localized flash flooding
where more numerous storms are expected, and where any training
would occur. This potential is highest south of I-70. Expect the
convection to diminish by late afternoon/early evening, as the
shortwave trough axis exits to the east. 


KEY MESSAGE 2... 
After any early evening convection wanes, expect mainly dry
weather tonight. The next shortwave is progged to approach from
the Midwest, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region late tonight
into Friday. A surface boundary is also progged to drift south
across the region Friday. Expect additional showers and 
thunderstorms with this shortwave. Instability is progged to be 
similar to today's, with similar PWATs. Increased flow aloft 
should result in a slightly faster storm motion, though 0-6 km 
shear remains around 25kt. Locally heavy rainfall will remain 
possible, especially where any training would occur.

Ensembles indicate the surface boundary should stall south of
the I-70 corridor on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue, as another shortwave tracks in the vicinity of
the boundary. The highest POPs are currently near and south of
the I-70 corridor. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The flow aloft should veer to the NW on Sunday, pushing the
surface boundary further south. Mainly dry weather is expected
as the front exits. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
the middle of next week, as a strong ridge/high builds eastward
from the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave trough
will result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for
areas near and south of I-70 this morning. These have been heavy
rain producers reducing visibility to as low as 3/4SM, so have
included appropriate mention at MGW through mid-morning with
slightly lesser restrictions at LBE as the shortwave slides
northeast. Patchy fog at DUJ will quickly erode with sunrise.
 
Otherwise, expect additional cumulus clouds to develop late this
morning as convective temperatures are reached. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon south of
Pittsburgh as another shortwave crosses. HREFguidance suggests
around a 50-60% chance for at least 1"/hr rainfall rates and 
thus periodic but impactful visibility restriction to a mile or
less similar to observations from this morning. Included PROB30
for TSRA for most airports north of the I-70 corridor, with a 
TEMPO mention to the south where more coverage is expected. 
Convection should wane by evening as the shortwave trough axis 
exits to the east, though some hi res guidance maintains widely 
scattered showers overnight ahead of yet another shortwave 
progged to cross on Friday, so for now kept VCSH mention in for 
the overnight period.

Outlook... 
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday 
with another crossing disturbance. Shower and thunderstorm 
chances continue Saturday as a surface front becomes stationary 
near or south of a ZZV-MGW corridor. Generally dry weather and 
VFR should return Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM/MLB