FXUS61 KPBZ 151207 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 807 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain shower chances have decreased today. Added a mention of thunder on Friday with a strong cold front. A portion of the area generally east of I-79 has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm front lift north tonight 2) Strong cold front crosses Friday with showers, possible thunderstorms, and gusty wind. Colder behind the front, with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night. 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front was analyzed from the Mid Atlantic region to the Lower Ohio Valley region. A wave moving along the front could spread some showers across areas south of I-70 today. An isolated shower is possible across the remainder of the area, though much of the time will be dry in easterly flow. The front will return north as a warm front tonight, as a digging shortwave trough and deepening surface low advance across the Midwest. Showers are expected as the front lifts north, with isolated thunderstorms also possible with elevated instability. A low level jet is also expected to increase and track across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region tonight. This should enhance lift, resulting in more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms north of Pittsburgh. A portion of eastern Ohio was included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms this evening. It appears there is a better chance for severe storms upstream, and there is some question on how far east this activity will reach before weakening. Overall, the potential for severe storms across the Upper Ohio Valley region appears limited, with the instability becoming elevated by the time storms arrive. 0-6km shear is expected to range from 45-55kt, which could result in a gusty wind potential until the storms become elevated tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... The warm front should lift north of the region Friday morning, as the deepening surface low tracks across Ontario. The low will pull a strong cold front across the region from W-E from mid morning into the early afternoon. With the slower FROPA timing, enough instability could build with some heating early in the day to result in a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has included areas roughly east of I-79 in a Marginal Risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. With a strong wind field in place aloft, any stronger shower or thunderstorm could mix this wind down to the surface (wind at 10 kft is expected to be around 60 kt.) After FROPA, cold advection and a tight pressure gradient should result in gusty wind from 30-40 mph across much of the area. Probabilities for advisory level gusts (greater than 45mph), and currently range from 5 percent to as much as 35 percent across the lower elevations. It still appears the higher terrain areas will see the highest gusts, with advisory level gusts the most likely across eastern Tucker county WV later Friday into Friday night. Overall, the less aggressive cold advection should result in slightly less steep lapse rates, which could limit gusts outside of the higher terrain. Showers are expected to increase again Friday night as the strong upper trough crosses the region, and some lake enhancement occurs. Temperatures are currently expected to remain above freezing, with wind precluding a frost potential. Wind should diminish on Saturday as high pressure builds in. Clearing skies and diminishing wind should result in widespread frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. KEY MESSAGE 3... A less amplified flow aloft is expected by next week as the deep upper trough exits the area. Rising 500mb height and surface high pressure should result in dry weather into the middle of next week, with a gradual warming trend back to seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Due to dry air advection from northerly flow at the surface, some areas of MVFR cigs eroded, however, redevelopment of these cigs is likely later today as the flow gradually veers to the east. For those outside this clearing, mainly MVFR cigs are forecast through much of the day as a warm front begins to lift north toward the region. Further deterioration to low MVFR, and eventually IFR, is expected this evening and tonight as the front crosses, and showers overspread the region. There could be isolated thunderstorms as well with elevated instability and a crossing low level jet. This jet should also result in a LLWS potential from late evening through the overnight hours. Overnight, we will also see the wind veer from east to south as conditions remain relatively breezy. By tomorrow morning, areas around PIT and south, are forecast to briefly scatter out by tomorrow morning. During the day, a strong cold front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms along with wind freshening up as it veers to the west. Gusts up to 30-40kts are likely with higher gusts up to 45-50kts possible across the higher terrain airports. Outlook... Showers will continue Friday night under subsequent upper troughing. Building high pressure will return dry weather Saturday into next week. Wind will also diminish on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM/Lupo