FXUS61 KPBZ 162015 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 415 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thunderstorm threat has ended for today. A Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night due to the high probability for temperatures to drop to/below 32F. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and gusty wind through tonight 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of this afternoon's pre-frontal trough passage, expect light showers and gusty wind with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Wind gusts should hold in the 25-35 mph range in the lowlands and possibly up to 40 mph in the ridges. The probability for advisory criteria >46 mph remains low. A deepening upper-level trough is forecast to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight into tomorrow morning. Overall coverage of showers should decrease into the overnight hours, though some scattered lake enhanced showers are possible within the cold advection regime. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning. With that said, there is a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, but ground temperatures will be too warm for any flakes to stick. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper-level trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as the surface low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling Saturday night resulting in a frost/freeze potential. A Freeze Watch has been issued for region effective on Saturday night. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the upper-level closed low will break away from the trough and persist off of the SE Coast. Over the Western CONUS, another upper-level trough will become relatively stationary by Tuesday, following a Tropical Storm Simon. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A surface cold front will exit the region shortly after the 18z TAF issuance, resulting in ending the risks for gusts 30-45kts and heavier rain associated with its showers/thunderstorms. Broad ascent with the deepening trough to the SSW will favor fairly widespread light rain showers/drizzle through at least 00z with cigs occasionally varying between low MVFR to low VFR and limited visibility impacts. A reinforcing front causing a northerly wind shift aft 00z may result in a second wave of rain that better lowers visibility and offers low probability IFR cig chances. Though drying and subtle cig rises begin after this second frontal passage, cold advection coupled with warm lake waters may result in narrow bands of lake enhanced showers that maintain (or further lower) the fairly predominant MVFR stratus on going. Outlook... Lifting/breaking of residual MVFR to VFR stratocu expected by 14z Saturday as high pressure and ridging build over the region, with clear skies likely by 00z. There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/Lupo AVIATION...Frazier