FXUS61 KPBZ 162327 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thunderstorm threat has ended for today. A Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night due to the high probability for temperatures to drop to/below 32F. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and gusty wind through tonight 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of this afternoon's pre-frontal trough passage, expect light showers and gusty wind with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Wind gusts should hold in the 25-35 mph range in the lowlands and possibly up to 40 mph in the ridges. The probability for advisory criteria >46 mph remains low. A deepening upper-level trough is forecast to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight into tomorrow morning. Overall coverage of showers should decrease into the overnight hours, though some scattered lake enhanced showers are possible within the cold advection regime. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning. With that said, there is a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, but ground temperatures will be too warm for any flakes to stick. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper-level trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as the surface low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling Saturday night resulting in a frost/freeze potential. A Freeze Watch has been issued for region effective on Saturday night. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the upper-level closed low will break away from the trough and persist off of the SE Coast. Over the Western CONUS, another upper-level trough will become relatively stationary by Tuesday, following a Tropical Storm Simon. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Light rain showers/drizzle with VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue this evening, with a reinforcing cold front forcing a northerly wind shift over the next several hours. This will also result in a second wave of rain with more widespread MVFR cig/vsby potential and low probability for IFR cigs. Though drying and subtle cig rises begin overnight following the secondary cold frontal passage, cold advection coupled with warm lake waters may result in narrow bands of lake enhanced showers that maintain (or further lower) the fairly predominant MVFR stratus on going. Building high pressure and ridging should lift/breakup residual MVFR stratocu by 14z Sat, with clear skies likely by late afternoon. Outlook... There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/Lupo AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier