FXUS66 KPDT 151720
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1020 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week

2. Breezy conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley Friday with 
   light mountain precipitation.

3. Breezy through the wind prone areas Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current nighttime satellite is showing clear skies over the region. 
This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures. Temperatures will 
be in the upper 20s to low 30s across portions of central OR and the 
eastern mountains in locations like La Pine and Seneca. The Basin, 
Gorge, foothills and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will see temperatures in 
the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Deterministic models are in firm agreement with the upper level 
ridge remaining over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures 
will peak on Friday with in office calculations showing temperatures 
to be nearly 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Looking at the 
ensemble guidance, 80-90% of the HREF raw ensembles show 
temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the Basin, 
foothills, Gorge and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys while central OR and 
the John Day Basin will see upper 70s with some possible 80s mixed 
in. 

Models show that Friday will begin to see the synoptic transition of 
the upper level ridge moving east and an upper level trough building 
into the region from the northwest. As the ridge exits the area, a 
surface high will form in Treasure Valley while a weak surface low 
will form over the Columbia Basin. This is the perfect synoptic set 
up for easterly breezy winds through the Grande Ronde Valley. Winds 
through the area are expected to begin to pick after midnight 
reaching its peak after 11 AM and persisting through 5 PM. HREF raw 
ensembles show sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph 
with some isolated 40 mph gusts with 80-90% agreement. 

Saturday models show the upper level trough beginning to dig into 
the PacNW. As the leading edge of the trough wedges itself against 
the Cascades, the pressure gradients begin to tighten leading to 
breezy conditions through the typical winds prone gap areas. Looking 
at the NBM raw ensembles, 60-80% are in agreement that the Kittitas 
Valley will see winds between 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts 
of 30-35 mph. The Gorge will see 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts 
of 25-30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites.
Clear skies to start with few high clouds towards the 08-18z period 
for all sites. Breezier conditions for KDLS, KRDM, and KBND at 10KT, 
with gusts at 15KT for KDLS.&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  69  37  74  41 /   0   0   0   0 
ALW  69  44  75  49 /   0   0   0   0 
PSC  72  38  70  39 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  70  42  70  43 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  70  37  71  41 /   0   0   0   0 
ELN  67  38  67  41 /   0   0   0   0 
RDM  75  33  79  36 /   0   0   0   0 
LGD  70  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0 
GCD  75  36  77  37 /   0   0   0   0 
DLS  74  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...07/95