FXUS65 KPIH 072343
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
543 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through tomorrow evening
  with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms

- Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon
  across the southern highlands along the Utah border due to 
  thunderstorms, and potentially again Wednesday

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the week with hot
  conditions likely for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected across two main
areas through tonight. The first is currently ongoing and should
expand in coverage is south of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
The expectation is to see some seepage (likely outflow-related)
into the Magic Valley and Snake Plain around Pocatello and
Blackfoot. We will see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with
this batch, along with a 50-90% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph.
There is a MARGINAL RISK in this area for strong winds. The
other area across the mountains from around Mackay through
Island Park. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph and
just a small chance of rain and thunder. There will likely be
outflow across other areas and MAYBE some thunderstorms
developing along those boundaries, but confidence in any one
location seeing that right now is too low to forecast. We will
This should last past midnight in some spots but pretty much
done by sunrise. Tomorrow's round is likely a little more
widespread, but the two more concentrated areas will be in the
central mountains through Island Park and higher elevations
south of the Snake Plain. The potential for strong outflow winds
is very similar to tomorrow, but increased a bit overall due to
increased coverage. 

Starting Thursday and through the weekend, dry and hot
conditions are still expected. Highs by the weekend, especially
Sunday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. The highest end
range is still pushing hotter spots closer to 105, but that is
likely a combination of full sunshine and potentially ongoing
bias with the Blend of Models in more extreme heat events. It is
something worth watching however at this point. The trend is
still showing high pressure building in, BUT the center of the
ridge may stay far enough east to allow limited monsoon moisture
arriving by Monday, and deeper moisture toward the middle of
next week. At the moment, the Blend is forecasting this type of
trend starting Monday. There is still a fairly even split on
WHEN the deeper moisture might arrive, based on where the ridge
centers itself. Half (or close to half) keep it still far enough
west to hold off until mid-week, while the rest bring it in
as soon as Monday. Daily high temperatures in that type of
pattern will be highly dependent on the amount of clouds and
storms around each day. At the moment, temperatures will likely
stay in the 90s for the most part as a general trend. Stay 
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Activity this afternoon is very isolated, although KBYI and KPIH 
could both still see a shower or storm pass through tonight as 
activity shifts northeastward. There will be a break in activity 
this evening through early tomorrow afternoon before scattered 
convection returns. Probability of thunder Wednesday afternoon is 
highest at further west, with 30 to 40 at KPIH, 60 to 70 at KBYI, 
and 40 to 50 at KSUN. PROB30 may be changed to predominant 
thunderstorms for the latter two sites. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through early
evening with red flag warnings in effect for zones 413 and 427.
Expect the storms to dissipateovernight. The threat for storms
exists again on Wednesday with a red flag warning in place again
Wednesday afternoon in zone 427 which is targeted for the most
activity by the models. Left the other zones out with only
isolated coverage expected. Dry conditions are expected Thursday
through Sunday with extremely hot conditions expected to be in
place the weekend with many low elevation locations reaching
triple digits with widespread minimum humidity well below 15
percent.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413-427.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...GK/13