FXUS65 KPIH 081921
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
121 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early
  evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry 
  thunderstorms

- Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for
  fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms

- Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot
  conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will
  reach 100 degrees by the weekend.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Main impact this afternoon and evening will be isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a slight
chance everywhere but most likely spot is in the southern hills
south of interstates 84 and 86. Will have much less activity on
Thursday but a very slight chance remains. Will start to see the
warming Thursday with highs in the 80s mountains and into the
low 90s valleys. By Friday will have dry conditions with no
thunderstorm threat. Low elevations will reach the mid 90s with
80s to lower 90s mountains. By Saturday and Sunday expecting
many low elevations to reach 100 degrees. May see a bit of a
wind increase Saturday into Sunday with some 20 to 30 mph wind
gusts expected.  

In the long term as the upper level strong ridge pushes east a
bit there is the potential some monsoonal moisture may work
north on the back side of the ridge by Tuesday and next
Wednesday. So there is at least the potential for some increase
in moisture and showers and thunderstorms returning. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 956 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The main impacts will be potential thunderstorms impacting all
TAF sites EXCEPT DIJ, where it appears any lingering
shower/storm potential will be minimal and/or not close enough 
to the airport. We have included PROB30 for BYI, SUN, PIH, and
IDA for gusts over 35kts, with some potential for gusts
exceeding 45-50kts. We should see showers and storms clear these
TAF sites later this evening. VFR weather is expected although
we might see a brief reduction during any storm that ends up
producing heavier rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected once again 
this afternoon. The best chances for storms is across fire zone 
427. Gusty outflow winds are likely near storms. Drier weather 
is likely for Thursday. Hot, dry and perhaps windy weather is 
expected over the weekend which could warrant additional red 
flag warnings.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...13