FXUS65 KPIH 082302
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
502 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early
  evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry 
  thunderstorms

- Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for
  fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms

- Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot
  conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will
  reach 100 degrees by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Main impact this afternoon and evening will be isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a slight
chance everywhere but most likely spot is in the southern hills
south of interstates 84 and 86. Will have much less activity on
Thursday but a very slight chance remains. Will start to see the
warming Thursday with highs in the 80s mountains and into the
low 90s valleys. By Friday will have dry conditions with no
thunderstorm threat. Low elevations will reach the mid 90s with
80s to lower 90s mountains. By Saturday and Sunday expecting
many low elevations to reach 100 degrees. May see a bit of a
wind increase Saturday into Sunday with some 20 to 30 mph wind
gusts expected.  

In the long term as the upper level strong ridge pushes east a
bit there is the potential some monsoonal moisture may work
north on the back side of the ridge by Tuesday and next
Wednesday. So there is at least the potential for some increase
in moisture and showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Scattered convection and numerous outflow boundaries will continue 
to threaten the terminals through late tonight. Outflow winds are 
largely ranging 35 to 45 mph with some locally stronger gusts. 
Convection will cease for the overnight hours before isolated storms 
return Thursday afternoon. Probability of thunder will be less than 
30 at all terminals. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Red flag warning remains in effect for zone 427 until 8 pm with
scattered thunderstorms expected. Will have at least isolated
coverage all zones this evening. Expect much less thunderstorm
coverage on Thursday with hot and dry conditions Saturday and
Sunday. Expect a bit of a wind increase Saturday and Sunday as
well and could have Red flag conditions for low humidity and
wind gusts in zones 475,476, 410 and 411 mainly. In the long
term could see a monsoonal moisture increase later next week
mid week time frame which may increase chance of showers and
thunderstorms again.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...GK