FXUS65 KPIH 091844 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat expected through the weekend with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday. - Drier weather returns today through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Cool front/dry line arrives today. Still debatable if enough dry air works into the region before convection fires off. The NAM, GFS and HREF keeps things pretty dry, but the HRRR continues to fire off showers and thunderstorms around Arco and propagates them east to near IF and Rexburg by 00z. Decided to add a slight chance for storms in that area, but its likely that if we see anything it will probably be just virga. With that said, we could still see some descent wind gusts from the virga showers if they develop. Dry weather is likely into early next week. Hot conditions arrive over the weekend. Heat risk values are strongly pinging some form of heat products across much of our central and east Idaho and have been consistently doing so. Temps in the upper 90s to around 100 looks very likely for many of our communities. These temperatures will flirt with daily records at many sites. Given the consistency that we've been seeing will roll with a heat watch for Saturday and Sunday. Looks breezy as well over the weekend with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range for many. This hot weather looks like it will continue into Monday, perhaps backing off some on Tuesday. Could see the heat products extending into early next week, but with less confidence at this time. Potential monsoon flow from the south looks to arrive for Wednesday and beyond bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, added cloud cover, and somewhat lower temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Widespread VFR with mainly clear skies through Friday with only some few to sct mid level clouds. Winds generally under 10 knots other than some afternoon 10 knots or so at PIH and IDA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms still possible today and Friday afternoon, but coverage and intensity should be much lower than previous afternoons as moisture continues to wane. Any brief shower or thunderstorm could still produce gusty and erratic winds, but this will be more of an exception than the rule. The ridge of high pressure advertised for several days will establish over the next 24 hours or so, bringing much warmer temperatures to the area and drier conditions overall. We'll see temperature climb from near or slightly above average today to 10-15 degrees above average by Saturday and Sunday. RH values will drop to values firmly in the low teen to single digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will be much warmer than usual as well, limiting overnight recovery over the weekend. Winds will generally be light today and Friday, but begin to increase Saturday and Sunday. These will be the next critical fire weather days as fuels continue to dry out and cure from any recent rain they may have received. The ridge generally sticks around into early next week, but we begin to see monsoonal moisture wrap around the western edge of the high, bringing precipitable water values back up leading to better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but also limiting RH minimums. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>055-060>068-070-075. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ056>059. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...GK FIRE WEATHER...TAX