FXUS66 KPQR 080549 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1049 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow and varying degrees of 
morning cloud cover will bring seasonable temperatures July 8-12
along with continued dry weather, aside from a 10-15% chance of
light rain or drizzle in Pacific and Clatsop counties on 
Friday. Temperatures trend warmer July 13-14 as upper level flow
becomes southwesterly upstream of an amplifying upper level 
ridge over the central U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tuesday night through Monday night...The forecast is
highlighted by persistent onshore flow, seasonable temperatures, and
continued dry weather aside from a 10-15% chance of light rain or
drizzle in Pacific and Clatsop counties on Friday. Model ensemble
guidance is in good agreement for an extended period of near zonal
flow aloft from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Upper
level flow becomes more southwesterly late Friday into the weekend.
At the surface, onshore flow is expected to persist each day. This
typical summer-time weather pattern will bring temperatures that are
close to average for this time of year, along with varying degrees of
morning cloud cover and plenty of afternoon sun. Total model spread
for temperatures Wednesday through Friday is very narrow, suggesting
confidence is high in regards to the temperature forecast. Expect
highs ranging between 77-83 degrees Thursday and Friday for inland
valleys, coolest over the Cowlitz Valley and lower Columbia and
warmest over the Willamette Valley, Portland metro, Columbia River
Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley. Expect highs in the 60s for the
coast and high Cascades. Morning lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are
expected both inland and at the coast. As such, HeatRisk will stay in
the Minor category. It is also worth mentioning a decaying cool front
will bring a 10-15% chance of light rain or drizzle over Pacific and
Clatsop counties on Friday, especially in the morning when forecast
soundings depict saturated conditions in the lowest 0.75-1.0 km of
the atmosphere. No impacts would occur with this precipitation if it
does occur, with total rain amounts of only a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch.

Model spread for temperatures begins to increase slightly over the
weekend for inland valleys, with highs ranging anywhere from the mid
70s to mid 80s. The outcome will be highly dependent on how
widespread morning cloud cover is and how early in the day cloud
cover is able to scatter out. The current forecast favors more
widespread and persistent cloud cover on Saturday when compared to
Sunday, and the deterministic NBM reflects this by keeping highs in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees on Saturday versus low to mid 80s on
Sunday.

Beyond the weekend, confidence is high temperatures will begin to
warm early next week with less cloud cover. This warming trend is in
response to increasing 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures
upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central United
States. Since the ridge axis will be located east of the Rocky
Mountains and far removed from the Pacific Northwest, extreme heat is
not expected. Instead, a more modest warm-up is likely with high
temperatures most likely peaking somewhere in the mid to upper 80s
for inland valleys. Meanwhile, the coast will remain cooler with
highs staying in the 60s. There is a 15-35% chance for highs of 90
degrees or warmer across the Willamette Valley, Portland/Vancouver
metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley on Monday.
Chances for highs above 95 degrees are under 10%, which further backs
up the expectation that extreme heat is not expected. Nevertheless,
the slight warm-up may be just enough to result in an increase from a
Minor HeatRisk to a Moderate HeatRisk; probabilistic HeatRisk
guidance suggests there is a 20-40% chance for a Moderate HeatRisk in
the aforementioned areas. -23

&&

.AVIATION...Onshore flow will continue to support marine stratus
along the coast. Coastal sites are expected to maintain sub-VFR
conditions through the overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Could see stratus hang on until the early afternoon but VFR
conditions are expected to return by late afternoon. Guidance 
shows higher chances for stratus developing along the lower 
Columbia and into the Portland metro area early Wed morning, with 
around a 40-60% chance of MVFR CIGs after 10z Wed. Lower chances 
(20-30%) for MVFR stratus exist for the southern Willamette 
Valley. Northerly winds expected to weaken overnight, increasing
again after 18z Wednesday to around 10 kt.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Stratus is likely to develop by 10-12z Wed 
morning with chances for MVFR CIGs increasing to around 60-70% 
after 10z Wed. Northerly winds weaken overnight, increasing again
to around 10 kt after 18z. -19/DH

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly 
winds across the coastal waters through the week. A weak cold 
front near Vancouver Island will dissipate later this evening as
winds generally remain 15 kt or less through Wednesday morning.
Pressure gradients tighten across the waters later Wed 
afternoon as northerlies increase with gusts to at least 20 kt 
south of Cape Falcon through Wed night. There is around a 40-50%
chance for wind gusts up to 25 kt south of Cape Foulweather, so
will continue to monitor forecast trends to determine if a 
Small Craft Advisory is needed for the coastal waters off the 
central Oregon coast. Latest guidance suggests similar 
conditions continue into Thursday with winds easing on Friday as
another weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to 
remain around 4 to 6 ft through the remainder of the week and 
into the weekend. /DH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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