FXUS66 KPQR 180450 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
950 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026

Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the 
region through much of the next week as high pressure builds 
over the Northeast Pacific, bringing a warming trend. Weak 
systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but
rain chances are minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday night...Concerns for
hazardous weather are minimal through the next week. There is
high confidence that upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure will build over the Northeast Pacific, with increasing 
uncertainty in the amplitude and position of the upper ridge
later in the forecast. Early in the period, while the ridge is
centered well offshore, upper shortwaves within northwesterly 
flow aloft may produce enhanced cloud cover, but chances for 
rainfall remain 5% or less through the middle of the week. On
clearer nights, areas of fog are most likely to develop within 
sheltered valleys. As the ridge axis shifts east, temperatures 
will trend upward through at least Thursday, reaching the 60s 
along the coast and upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the I-5
corridor. Later in the forecast period, uncertainty in the 
evolution and possible break-down of upper-level ridging 
introduces a similar uncertainty in forecast temperatures. Highs
are most likely to continue in the 60s to mid 70s, but the 
spread of possible outcomes becomes wider: chances of reaching 
80 degrees along the I-5 corridor are generally 15-45% Friday 
and Saturday, but there are also 10-25% chances of remaining 
below 70 degrees. The next opportunity for widespread rain holds
off until late next weekend when there is greater consensus that
the ridge breaks down. -36

&&

.AVIATION...Currently as of 04Z Mon, dry and mostly VFR 
conditions throughout the airspace. While VFR conditions will
continue through at least 06Z Tue for most terminals, low
stratus from the northwest has begun to push into KAST, which
will continue to bring low-end MVFR CIGs until around 17-19Z
Mon (50-70% chance of MVFR CIGs). One exception, there is a 
10-20% chance for low stratus formation (MVFR CIGs) between 
12-17Z Mon at KPDX and KTTD. Expect winds to stay northerly to 
northwesterly through at least 06Z Tue, generally light until 
17-19Z Mon, then 11-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt along the coast
and 8-12 kt inland until 02-04Z Tue.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions through at least 
06Z Tue. North to northwest winds around 5-8 kt will weaken
towards 07-09Z Mon, becoming light and variable overnight, then
increasing to 8-10 kt by 22-23Z Mon. There is a 10-20% chance
for low stratus formation (MVFR CIGs) between 12-17Z Mon. ~12

&&

.MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of 
next week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds
are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a 
surface thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon 
coast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal 
waters south of Cape Foulweather OR through 3 AM Monday for 
gusts up to 25 kt. Similar conditions are expected Monday
afternoon and evening. A series of upper level disturbances are
expected to move over the region during the middle of the week,
supporting chances for stronger winds for all marine zones. 
Seas around 6-9 feet are expected into the middle of the work 
week. 

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Columbia River
Bar in effect between 4 and 8 AM Monday morning for strong ebb
currents which will produce hazardous conditions to small 
craft. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours
each day this week. -19/DH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ253-273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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