FXUS65 KPUB 081734
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue Today through Friday, forming 
over the mountains each day and moving over the plains.

- Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains, 
especially on Thursday.

- Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Weak zonal flow continues aloft, but an incoming surge of cooler air 
from the north will bring active weather to the region this 
afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will fire, mainly over our 
eastern mountains, by around 2PM, before activity continues off to 
the southeast through the remainder of the day. Some areas could see 
brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, warranting a Flash 
Flood Watch for the area around the Aspen Acres Fire, 12PM through 
8PM. Showers will be a bit more plentiful than the last few days, 
with the chance for a few stronger to marginally severe storms 
closer to the KS border, where moisture and low-level forcing are 
both a bit more abundant. Meanwhile, temps during the day will be 
similar to yesterday, with 80s over the high valleys, and 90s to low-
100s over the eastern plains. Storms move off to the east-southeast 
overnight, with mild lows and good moisture recovery heading into 
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A flattening upper ridge remains in place overhead on Thursday, with 
a shortwave passing through the region during the afternoon. 
Thunderstorms are expected to fire as the wave passes and pushes a 
weak front down, some of which will likely be strong to severe. 
Latest SPC guidance shows a Slight Risk for severe weather over most 
of our eastern plains. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, with 80s 
to mid-90s for most areas.

For Friday, easterly surface winds over the plains, combined with a 
passing wave to our northeast, will bring plenty of moisture to the 
eastern plains, along with sufficient lift for another round of 
afternoon convection. Temperatures will be similar to Thursday, if a 
few degrees cooler over the eastern plains.

Looking into this weekend and early next week, a broad area of high 
pressure is still expected to build in from the southwest. This will 
lead to progressively hotter and drier conditions. Winds appear 
light enough, for now, to avoid any major fire weather concerns, but 
the hope is for more moisture to move in as the high pressure 
continues shifting east into the second half of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the 
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and 
KALS. Isolated to scattered convection will fire over the mts by 
midday then track east, so maintained PROB30 wording from roughly 
20z-02z for all three sites for -TSRA and VRB gusts 35-40 kts. 
Further east, storms may become strong to severe, producing gusts up 
to 60 mph and large hail. Light diurnal sfc winds are forecast by 
around midnight and for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO/KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE