FXUS65 KPUB 090634 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1234 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow, east of the mountains. - Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, particularly around the Aspen Acres fire. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with moisture slowly returning to the mountains next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today and tonight... Today's weather will be similar to yesterday, with zonal flow aloft and a passing disturbance that will help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Storms will first fire shortly after midday, mainly over and near our eastern mountains. Initial convection will be relatively slow-moving, with weak steering flow at the mid-levels. As such, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible for high risk areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 12-8 PM for the Aspen Acres burn area. By mid-late afternoon, convection will push further east as a northerly surge moves down over the plains. This will enhance low-level wind shear and lift, allowing for storms to increase in both coverage and intensity. Latest model runs are generous with instability, placing 500 J/kg of CAPE over I-25 by mid-afternoon, increasing to around 1000 J/kg by the KS border. All in all, the environment is looking favorable for a grouping of strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty outflow winds, hail, and moderate to heavy rainfall. These storms will continue to slowly push east into the evening hours, departing our area prior to midnight or so. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with highs in the 80s-90s and overnight lows in the 50s- 60s for the plains and 40s for the valleys. Finally, there will be a few hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions in the San Luis Valley this afternoon, but nothing widespread enough to warrant a highlight at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper-level disturbance passes to our northeast on Friday, giving us enough lift for another round of afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly upslope will be present over the plains throughout the day as well, helping advect in warm, moist air and increasing instability. Storms will once again fire over the mountains before pushing east and intensifying. There is currently a Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon, along and east of the I-25 corridor. Heading into the weekend, high pressure will continue building in across the region from the southwest. Hotter and drier conditions will set in across SE Colorado, with highs climbing back into the upper-90s over the eastern plains. More spotty fire weather conditions will be possible over the San Luis Valley each afternoon, but nothing looks particularly widespread due to weak winds beneath the high. As the upper ridge continues slowly moving east, some moisture will start returning to the Continental Divide by midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KALS...VFR conditions overnight into early Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the San Luis Valley by mid afternoon and remain possible at the terminal through early evening. Gusty outflow winds near 40 kts may be possible with passing storms. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions into early Thursday afternoon at both terminals. Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain and move across the terminals by late afternoon into the early evening. Gusty outflow winds to near 40 kts are possible with passing cells. Thunderstorms look to move eastduring the evening, with VFR conditions after 03z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOZLEY