FXUS65 KPUB 181735 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1135 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger is expected across our southern plains today, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - 50 mph winds are expected over the southern mountains and the San Luis Valley, which may lead to blowing dust over the valley, blowing snow over the mountains, and travel concerns resulting in both cases. - Showers will be possible north of Highway 50 and west of I-25, with thunderstorms mainly across the Pikes Peak region. - A Freeze Watch remains in place for El Paso and Kiowa counties tonight, and frost may be possible for other portions of the plains as well. - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas tomorrow and Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Lots of changes to the forecast this morning, mainly with headlines. Blowing Dust and High Wind Warnings have been added to the San Luis Valley with high winds mainly confined to the central and southern portions of the area. Still monitoring Baca and Las Animas counties for potential Blowing Dust Advsy or Dust storm warnings once the winds kick in as the front lifts northward. These decisions will need to be made based on mesoscale details with short fused type warnings. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 For the plains..The elusive cold front has sagged back south since sunset, and is now sitting between Springfield and Campo across Baca County. This front and where it ends up again this afternoon will be the driving factor in today's forecast across the plains once again. North of the front and west of I-25, stratus has begun to develop up against the terrain as of midnight. USAFA is reporting ceilings down to 2,000ft, and the Colorado Springs airfield is starting to see lower scattered decks as well. Models continue to suggest that rain will be possible as upslope continues across the mountains/plains interface throughout this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible across the Pikes Peak region again this afternoon, though severe development is not expected. That said, lots of shear will present over the region today, so if any areas clear out and warm up, chances for a stronger storm or two may be possible, especially over the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. The main forecast concern on our plains today though will be our high end Red Flag Warning across our southern plains. Las Animas and Baca counties are both included in this warning, and southern portions of Bent and Prowers counties may see periods of critical conditions as well depending on how far north/east the front gets shoved this afternoon. Over these areas, single digit relative humidity values and southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected. The strongest winds and lowest humidities will be over Baca County this afternoon, which will lead to the possibility for extreme fire behavior for any new or existing fires today. Please use extra caution and take care not to start a wildfire today. One last note for the plains, gusty winds over our southeast plains may also lead to blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions. Once the sun sets, the front *finally* pushes itself completely southwards, allowing all areas to cool and moisten through the overnight hours. This will put an end to fire weather concerns for a few days. Overnight lows will be chilly in our post frontal airmass though, and areas north of Highway 50 may see hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. El Paso and Kiowa counties are both under Freeze Watches for tonight through early Tuesday morning, and temperatures down into the upper 20s will be possible. Another tier of counties or two may also see the potential for frost depending on clearing through the overnight hours. For the high country and the San Luis Valley..Models bring the trough axis through our southern mountains between 9 AM and Noon or so, which will be the windiest timeframe for the San Juans, the San Luis Valley, and the Sangres. The NBM continues to be the only outlier suggesting high wind criteria, so have continued to trend towards other model consensus, which keeps winds below warning levels across the area. The San Luis Valley is likely to see gusts upwards of 50 mph or so though, especially if any showers survive off the mountains and help to enhance gusts coming down the terrain. Areas of blowing dust are likely across the Valley today, especially with any localized stronger winds from decaying showers. Over the mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of wind driven snow will be possible for the San Juans and the central mountains. Though totals will be low, degraded visibility and hazardous travel conditions may be possible from blowing snow, especially over mountain passes. Snow comes to an end for both range by around midnight or so at the latest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday.. The front is finally through us and will stay through us for Tuesday and Wednesday. We stay in southwest flow aloft as messy troughing sits out west. This pattern will keep temperatures cooler than normal, and it will keep precip chances over us as well. Models bring shortwave energy through the trough and over us on Tuesday, which will help to develop weak showers and thunderstorms over the high country on Tuesday afternoon, and better chances for widespread rain on the plains overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Daytime highs look to stay in the 60s both days, with decent chances for precipitation both days. Thursday Onwards.. Models are not in great agreement about the pattern late week onwards, but the general consensus suggests some type of northwest flow with a trough passing to our north. This looks to bring temperatures back into the near normal range for Thursday and Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures by the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast nearly every afternoon, especially across the high country. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KALS...very windy conditions out of the southwest, with gusts approaching 60 kts and BLDU with restrictions to CIGS and VIS. Winds will shift more westerly by mid afternoon and weaken into the evening. Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday morning. CIGS look to remain around 6 kft through much of the period, once winds decrease and BLDU subsides. KCOS...low CIGS near 1500 ft will prevail into early afternoon. A few showers look to move off the Rampart Range and across El Paso County this afternoon. Strong winds will likely accompany these showers, with gusts approaching 40 kts possible. A frontal boundary will arrive late this afternoon shifting winds northerly with continued strong gusts. CIGS will lower back to near 1500-2000 ft overnight into Tuesday morning as flow returns southeasterly upslope. KPUB...low CIGS near 2000 ft will continue into early afternoon before a cold front arrives by late afternoon. Northerly winds gusting near 40 kts may accompany the frontal boundary. There is a low probability of westerly winds briefly, with strong gusts around 20-22Z with clearing skies. Confidence in this is low. Winds will dissipate overnight and switching easterly with low CIGS near 2000 ft expected into Tuesday morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071. High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ070-071. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233- 237. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...MOZLEY