FXUS65 KPUB 230720
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased flash flood potential over the Aspen Acres burn scar
  today, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous
  across the area.  

- Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week,
  though with a downtrend in coverage late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms still drifting across the
area early this morning, with plentiful moisture and weak upward
forcing continuing. Still expect most activity to end by
sunrise, persisting longest over the far eastern plains where
low level jet may help boost activity for a few more hours.
Brief break in convection Sunday morning, before mountain 
storms develop again starting around 19z, with activity
spreading slowly over the plains and valleys from late afternoon
into the evening. Precip signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar  
in the 00z CAMs is not quite as impressive as it was in the 12z
data, as most forcing is rather weak and subtle (se surface
winds are lacking in the 00z run), though much like Saturday, 
plenty of moisture and convection is in place, with very hard 
to predict outflow collisions/interactions driving convection. 
Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the burn scar this afternoon
and evening, as rainfall amounts of over 1.5 inches fell 
between Beulah and Pueblo in less than an hr on Saturday, just 
missing the scar. Expect max temps today to cool just a few degf
over mountains, as mid level heights fall slightly, while 
plains readings stay relatively unchanged. 

On Monday, very little change in the pattern, with another round
of afternoon and evening convection across the area. Will wait
on another flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar to 
see how Sunday's convection and low level environment evolve, 
but may need another highlight as relatively stagnant weather
persists. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Upper level high pressure drifts back westward into the swrn
U.S. during the week, with mid/upper level flow becoming
slightly more nwly through the period. Still not much change
expected Tue, with another round of afternoon/evening storms 
focused over the mountains, drifting onto the plains in the 
evening. Weak front may then drop south south through the plains
late Tue into Wed, potentially enhancing convection over the 
eastern mountains and across the plains on Wed, as enhanced 
easterly upslope winds behind the front refresh low level 
moisture. Max temps will drift downward a few degf by Wed, as 
ridge shifts subtly west and moisture increases. Slow transition
to drier weather starts Thu as ridge gets far enough west to 
cut-off deeper mid-level moisture, but still expect the usual 
crop of afternoon/evening storms, most numerous eastern 
mountains and plains. Drier and warmer weather then in store for
Friday into next weekend, though we never completely flush the 
moisture out of the area, so at least isolated afternoon/evening
convection will continue each day, especially over the 
mountains. 

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area, including the 
three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, during the overnight 
hours, though decided to maintain mention of VCSH at KCOS and
KPUB until 07z as a few light showers linger. On Sunday, convection
expected to redevelop over the higher terrain by 18z-19z,
spreading to lower elevations after 20z. 

KCOS and KPUB: PROB30 for -TSRA once again starting 21z-22z and 
lasting until 03z.

KALS: PROB30 for variable gusts and -TSRA again starting at 20z, 
lasting until 02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for 
COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE