FXUS62 KRAH 080441 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1241 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 243 PM Tuesday... 1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh. 2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 PM Tuesday... 1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh. A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across central North Carolina through Wednesday as weak mid-level flow and a backdoor cold front sagging south from Virginia provide a favorable environment for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most deterministic and convection-allowing guidance suggests the greatest convective coverage will occur each afternoon and evening, with outflow boundaries being the focus this afternoon and evening and the backdoor front and any residual outflow boundaries serving as primary foci for storm development on Wednesday. While widespread organized severe weather is not expected, moderate instability will support a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger multicells. The severe weather risk should remain highest where storms can interact with the southward-moving boundary, especially across northern half of the forecast area. The flash flood threat may ultimately become the greater concern. Deep tropical moisture, slow storm motions, and the potential for repeated development along the frontal zone could produce localized heavy rainfall totals. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to highlight the greatest concern across the northern and northeastern portions of central North Carolina both today and Wednesday, where the proximity of the backdoor front may favor more persistent or training convection. Localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in urban areas and other flood-prone locations where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur. 2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday. Each day through the end of the work week is expected to trend a degree or two hotter as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower and middle 90s. Combined with continued high humidity, heat indices will likely reach or exceed 100 degrees across much of central North Carolina during this time. The experimental HeatRisk forecast shows major (Level 3 of 4) continuing or perhaps expanding a bit each day south and east of the Triad through Saturday. This level of heat can be dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration, especially those spending extended periods outdoors. A weak front approaching late in the weekend should bring at least modest relief beginning Sunday, with temperatures easing back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1241 AM Wednesday... Some isolated pockets of convection continue near RWI this morning, otherwise conditions have dried out and remain VFR. As a weak backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast overnight, we should see at least some amount of MVFR stratus make a run at GSO/INT/RDU/RWI closer to daybreak. In addition, abundant rainfall Tuesday evening should set the stage for at least some MVFR vsbys through daybreak although quite a bit of high cloud cover should prevent this from becoming widespread/dense. Attention turns toward the afternoon where the presence of a stalled surface boundary and lee troughing should serve as the focus for another round of afternoon showers and storms. The most widespread convection is expected from approx 20Z - 02Z before waning after midnight. Brief MVFR restrictions can be expected within any given thunderstorm. Outlook: A persistent summertime pattern will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged aviation impacts are expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...np AVIATION...Leins/np