FXUS62 KRAH 080600 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued today && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. 2) Long duration heat concerns coming to an end after today. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain Early morning satellite, radar, and surface analysis show decaying convection across eastern NC. Surface obs show a northeasterly wind shift at many sites, driven primarily from the outflow from Tuesday night's convection. This wind shift is oriented roughly along US-64 as of 06Z. A weak synoptic backdoor cold front remains across northern VA this morning, with a secondary weak trough across the western Piedmont. Meanwhile to the west, a quasi-stationary upper wave over AR/TN is beginning to open up and trek northeastward through the lower OH valley. For today, the upper trough to our west will provide a broad area of ascent across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Modest upper support from the approaching wave, along with the proximity of the aforementioned outflow boundary and Piedmont trough, will support another round of afternoon showers and storms. Much like the past several days, deep layer shear is lacking but we have plenty of MLCAPE to work with (1500-2500 J/kG) and PW's remain anomalously high (2-2.2"). Any storms that form will be capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The majority of the forecast area remains outlooked within a SPC MRGL risk. Storm chances ramp up after 18Z and should linger into the mid/late evening hours per 00Z HREF, tapering off area-wide after midnight. To the south of the stalled outflow boundary, temps will warm considerably into the mid/upper 90s. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will yield another afternoon of dangerously high heat index values and we've gone ahead with another Heat Advisory for locations south and east of Raleigh (Sandhills, central and southern Coastal Plain). Starting it a little earlier today as heat index values will already be above 100 in some spots by 11 AM. If storms get going in these areas early, the Advisory may be cancelled prior to it's expected ending time of 8 PM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Long duration heat concerns coming to an end after today. A strong mid-level anticyclone over the FL peninsula, 00z RAOBS sampled 595 dam Tues evening, ridging up into the Carolinas will become suppressed southward Thurs as a meandering shortwave trough over the TN Valley begins to shift eastward. Additionally, near normal PWAT values will advect into the area Thurs and combine with westerly downsloping flow, albeit weak, to allow surface dew points to mix out into the 60s where greatest low-lvl thickness and associated 2m temperatures will likely still reach into the upper 90s Thurs and Fri. This should limit heat indices max out in the low 100s. Heat Risk does still feature a level 3 risk for the Sandhills, eastern Piedmont and the southern Coastal Plain, but 2-meter temperatures are only 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-July with some degree of acclimation likely starting to set in. Nevertheless, be aware of the signs of heat exhaustion, especially if you much be outside and partake in strenuous activity. A break from the seasonably anomalous heat is expected as increased cloud cover and precipitation chances increase Fri through Sun as a convectively perturbed, and seasonably moist, shear axis slowly sags southward through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. Mid-lvl convergence on the backside of troughing over the northern Atlantic may also sufficiently strengthen surface high pressure over the Northeast to push a backdoor cold front into the Carolinas Sun night into Mon. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1241 AM Wednesday... Some isolated pockets of convection continue near RWI this morning, otherwise conditions have dried out and remain VFR. As a weak backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast overnight, we should see at least some amount of MVFR stratus make a run at GSO/INT/RDU/RWI closer to daybreak. In addition, abundant rainfall Tuesday evening should set the stage for at least some MVFR vsbys through daybreak although quite a bit of high cloud cover should prevent this from becoming widespread/dense. Attention turns toward the afternoon where the presence of a stalled surface boundary and lee troughing should serve as the focus for another round of afternoon showers and storms. The most widespread convection is expected from approx 20Z - 02Z before waning after midnight. Brief MVFR restrictions can be expected within any given thunderstorm. Outlook: A persistent summertime pattern will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged aviation impacts are expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Leins/np