FXUS62 KRAH 090546 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 146 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued for portions of the southern Coastal Plain. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 146 AM Thursday... 1) Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. 2) Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 146 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. Mid level drying will briefly take hold across the area today, with many locations seeing dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon. At the same time, H5 heights will increase slightly especially across the southern Coastal Plain. In that area in particular, the slightly lower dewpoints will likely be offset by higher 2m temps and once again we will see some areas of dangerously high heat index values across the area. This time it looks to be confined to the southern Coastal Plain and points southeast, and another Heat Advisory has been issued for today. Looking ahead at Friday and Saturday, persistent mid level ridging will keep temperatures well above normal (approaching 100 in some spots across the Coastal Plain), and it's entirely likely we'll need to continue with Heat Advisories for parts of our area through Saturday. Finally by Sunday we will see some relief area-wide as temperatures retreat into the mid 80s across the NW Piedmont and upper 80s to the southeast. Near or slightly below normal temps are forecast through at least Tuesday before warming once again into the low to mid 90s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. Weak mid-lvl and convectively perturbed westerly flow will work to focus otherwise air mass convection each afternoon/evening through Friday. Moderate instability, seasonable PWAT values, and steep low- lvl lapse rates will support damaging straight-line winds as the most likely hazard each afternoon and evening, although coverage today will likely be more limited in nature with roughly neutral H5 height tendencies and PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75" advecting into central NC during peak heating. Best chances may be more focused around southern Appalachians that moves eastward into the Piedmont and again on Friday, but perhaps aided by outflow stemming from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances and coverage are expected to increase heading into the weekend as anomalous mid/upper lvl ridging over the Four Corners into the Northern Plains directs a west-to-east streamer of anomalous moisture and parade of convectively induced shortwave disturbances traverse across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the same time, high pressure is expected to build and strengthen over the Northeast and push a backdoor cold front into and through central NC Sun into Monday. Convective chances will be muddied by several days of prior coverage and rain cooled outflow moving into the area and the approaching cold front. If adequate instability is able to develop, increased mid-lvl flow of 25-35 kts would allow for more organized convection to develop. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1252 AM Thursday...Precip has ended across the area with only a few high clouds remaining. However we are already seeing some IFR stratus making its way into the northern Coastal Plain and RWI is likely to see at least a few hours of IFR cigs through daybreak. Lesser confidence in these cigs making it into RDU so I will keep them VFR for now. Since Wednesday's precip was less widespread than previous days, fog should also be less widespread. Some isolated pockets of MVFR vsbys may develop late tonight but not confident enough to include in the 06Z TAFS. Looking toward this afternoon, drier air moving into the area should yield an overall decrease in precip chances area-wide. Some western Piedmont convection is possible and could drift into the Triad sites after 20Z but this morning's 00Z guidance keeps things dry elsewhere. Outlook: Brief restrictions will be possible again on Friday, especially in the west as another round of afternoon thunderstorms may form. A better chance for more widespread rain and the associated restrictions will be on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Leins/LH