FXUS62 KRAH 091701 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued for portions of the southern Coastal Plain. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 146 AM Thursday... 1) Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. 2) Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 146 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. Mid level drying will briefly take hold across the area today, with many locations seeing dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon. At the same time, H5 heights will increase slightly especially across the southern Coastal Plain. In that area in particular, the slightly lower dewpoints will likely be offset by higher 2m temps and once again we will see some areas of dangerously high heat index values across the area. This time it looks to be confined to the southern Coastal Plain and points southeast, and another Heat Advisory has been issued for today. Looking ahead at Friday and Saturday, persistent mid level ridging will keep temperatures well above normal (approaching 100 in some spots across the Coastal Plain), and it's entirely likely we'll need to continue with Heat Advisories for parts of our area through Saturday. Finally by Sunday we will see some relief area-wide as temperatures retreat into the mid 80s across the NW Piedmont and upper 80s to the southeast. Near or slightly below normal temps are forecast through at least Tuesday before warming once again into the low to mid 90s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. Weak mid-lvl and convectively perturbed westerly flow will work to focus otherwise air mass convection each afternoon/evening through Friday. Moderate instability, seasonable PWAT values, and steep low- lvl lapse rates will support damaging straight-line winds as the most likely hazard each afternoon and evening, although coverage today will likely be more limited in nature with roughly neutral H5 height tendencies and PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75" advecting into central NC during peak heating. Best chances may be more focused around southern Appalachians that moves eastward into the Piedmont and again on Friday, but perhaps aided by outflow stemming from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances and coverage are expected to increase heading into the weekend as anomalous mid/upper lvl ridging over the Four Corners into the Northern Plains directs a west-to-east streamer of anomalous moisture and parade of convectively induced shortwave disturbances traverse across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the same time, high pressure is expected to build and strengthen over the Northeast and push a backdoor cold front into and through central NC Sun into Monday. Convective chances will be muddied by several days of prior coverage and rain cooled outflow moving into the area and the approaching cold front. If adequate instability is able to develop, increased mid-lvl flow of 25-35 kts would allow for more organized convection to develop. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... TAF period: VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Some scattered convection is expected this afternoon, although coverage should be less than yesterday afternoon and is expected to remain confined to INT/GSO. Cannot rule out a rogue thunderstorm reaching as far east as RDU, but think that is rather unlikely. Although there was widespread low stratus this morning that impacted RWI and was just to the north of RDU, do not expect a repeat of that on Friday morning, considering the drier air in the area and less precipitation coverage expected this afternoon. Outlook: Thunderstorm coverage should remain meager once again on Friday, with INT the most likely location to have any thunderstorms. Widespread thunderstorm coverage along with flight restrictions are expected at all terminals on Saturday and Sunday, with convection limited to INT/GSO/FAY on Monday and all locations expected to be dry on Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Green