FXUS62 KRAH 142357 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 757 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Potential for highs to remain in the low to mid 80s northeast of the Triangle on Thursday * Increased chance of rain Friday night and particularly Saturday morning with a cold front && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 210 PM Wednesday... 1) The potential for record heat continues through Friday. 2) A cold front Friday night brings a decisive end to the record heat, bringing in well below normal temperatures for the weekend and the potential for patchy frost by Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 210 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... The potential for record heat continues through Friday. As of 2pm, RDU had already warmed to 88 degrees, beating the previous daily record high of 86 set in 1985. In addition, GSO had warmed to 85 degrees, tying the daily record high set in 1975. FAY is 87 degrees and will flirt with their daily record high of 90 degrees. This is primarily due to an upper-level ridge building across the southeastern United States, considering surface wind has been minimal out of the southwest today. The potential for record heat on Thursday may be tempered by a cold front currently near the Mason-Dixon line that will drop south tomorrow into Virginia, and some models are showing this front drifting into northeastern North Carolina. There will likely be a 10 degree difference in high temperatures between Raleigh and Roanoke Rapids Thursday afternoon, although all three climate sites (Greensboro, RDU, Fayetteville) are expected to remain on the warm side of the front. Precipitation chances with this front are near zero, but the front will retreat to the north on Friday, allowing the entire forecast area to return to the mid to upper 80s for highs. Along with widespread sunshine on Friday, wind gusts as high as 30 mph can be expected in the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front Friday night brings a decisive end to the record heat, bringing in well below normal temperatures for the weekend and the potential for patchy frost by Sunday morning. The cold front is expected to arrive slightly later than the previous forecast, and should now be crossing central North Carolina after sunset Friday evening. Although winds could be gusty with the frontal passage itself, this timing will reduce the overall wind gusts due to less mixing in the overnight hours. Models are showing a noticeable increase for the chance of rain with the frontal passage, specifically looking at Saturday morning, although rainfall totals would not be heavy. Saturday's highs will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than Friday, with isolated colder spots only rising into the upper 50s, with most locations reaching the low to mid 60s. Saturday and Sunday nights should have similar low temperatures, with most locations falling into the 40s, but some sheltered locations dropping into the upper 30s with the potential for some frost. Temperatures should return to near normal values by the beginning of next week, with highs around 70 and lows around 50. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 755 PM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light (5 kts or less), from the SW through Thursday morning before switching to the NE across northern areas in the afternoon as a backdoor front begins to settle into Virginia and parts of northern North Carolina. After a few mid and high clouds late this evening into the overnight, scattered clouds around 4-6 kft will also be possible on Thursday afternoon across the north. Outlook: Between 00Z-12Z Friday, there is the potential for MVFR and possibly even IFR ceilings toform across all terminals except for FAY before the clouds retreat to the north on Friday. Southwest wind gusts up to 25 kt will be possible Friday afternoon, followed by the chance for northerly wind gusts up to 30 kt Saturday afternoon along with light rain as a strong cold front moves through the area. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KGSO: 85/1975 (tied as of 2pm with 85 degrees today) KRDU: 86/1985 (broken as of 2pm with 88 degrees today) KFAY: 90/1954 October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 October 16: KGSO: 66/1947 KRDU: 69/1919 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/10/1907 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green AVIATION...Danco/Green CLIMATE...RAH