FXUS62 KRAH 151831 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No appreciable changes were made with the afternoon forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 PM Thursday... 1) Near-record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near-record heat will continue through Friday. While a front across Virginia has dipped into north-eastern North Carolina, temperatures have still climbed into the 80s near the VA/NC border, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the area. As of 1pm, all three climate sites are within 5 degrees of their respective daily record highs, and records could be tied or surpassed over the next couple of hours. The front should retreat back into Virginia overnight, allowing for uniform low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A strong southwest wind on Friday will result in gusts between 20-30 mph, and will give one more chance to reach record highs between 85 and 90 degrees. While clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, it appears that any rain should hold off until after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a drastic pattern-shift this weekend and bring the greatest impact to the sensible weather, especially Fri night into Sat. This front will be driven by a deep surface low < 1000 mb racing across the Northeast Fri evening and equally, if not more so, anomalous surface high pressure exceeding 1035 mb diving into the southern Plains and elongating up into the Mid-MS Valley Sat afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to support a high-PoP/low-QPF signal as anafrontal showers/sprinkles appears likely, especially across the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain where strong FGEN through the lower/mid-lvls overlaps intense H5 height falls (> 100m falls in 12hrs) and DPVA. This pattern will also support the development of an narrow cold- frontal rainband (NCFR), which could result in a period of enhanced winds and wind gusts along and immediately behind the NCFR with rapid pressures rises in its wake. Momentum transfer at the top of the mixed layer in point soundings suggest gusts may reach in excess of 40 mph with the NCFR passage. NWP guidance continues to flip-flop on whether the basal portion of the strong mid/upper level trough will pinch off and become a closed/cutoff low and its proximity to the Carolina coast. AIGFS deterministic runs line up with the AIFS ensemble solutions and favor a farther south and east development of the closed/cutoff low between the Southeast coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda (physics-based guidance favor its development immediately along the Carolina coast), which would favor less rain chances and cooler overnight and early morning lows Sun through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 227 PM Thursday... VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period. Mostly clear skies this afternoon into evening then some lower cigs could flirt with the sites from the north and east for part of Friday morning (except for KFAY). KRWI has the greatest chance of this with IFR cigs possible and perhaps some MVFR vsbys. Winds generally light VRB this afternoon and calm this evening. Winds should shift out of the SW and increase in magnitude Fridaymorning into afternoon to around 9-12 kts with possible gusts of 18-20 kts. Some scattered alto coverage could develop as well during the day (staying mostly clear for KFAY). Outlook: Rain will be possible Friday night and Saturday at INT/GSO, with rain likely at RDU/RWI/FAY. It appears likely that ceilings and visibility will remain VFR, but the wind will veer to the north Friday night with gusts as high as 25 kt, and widespread N gusts up to 30 kt are forecast on Saturday. N gusts between 15-25 kt should continue on Sunday before dropping under 20 kt on Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/AS AVIATION...Baker/Green