FXUS62 KRAH 160047 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 840 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No appreciable changes were made with the afternoon forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 PM Thursday... 1) Near-record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near-record heat will continue through Friday. While a front across Virginia has dipped into north-eastern North Carolina, temperatures have still climbed into the 80s near the VA/NC border, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the area. As of 1pm, all three climate sites are within 5 degrees of their respective daily record highs, and records could be tied or surpassed over the next couple of hours. The front should retreat back into Virginia overnight, allowing for uniform low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A strong southwest wind on Friday will result in gusts between 20-30 mph, and will give one more chance to reach record highs between 85 and 90 degrees. While clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, it appears that any rain should hold off until after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a drastic pattern-shift this weekend and bring the greatest impact to the sensible weather, especially Fri night into Sat. This front will be driven by a deep surface low < 1000 mb racing across the Northeast Fri evening and equally, if not more so, anomalous surface high pressure exceeding 1035 mb diving into the southern Plains and elongating up into the Mid-MS Valley Sat afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to support a high-PoP/low-QPF signal as anafrontal showers/sprinkles appears likely, especially across the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain where strong FGEN through the lower/mid-lvls overlaps intense H5 height falls (> 100m falls in 12hrs) and DPVA. This pattern will also support the development of an narrow cold- frontal rainband (NCFR), which could result in a period of enhanced winds and wind gusts along and immediately behind the NCFR with rapid pressures rises in its wake. Momentum transfer at the top of the mixed layer in point soundings suggest gusts may reach in excess of 40 mph with the NCFR passage. NWP guidance continues to flip-flop on whether the basal portion of the strong mid/upper level trough will pinch off and become a closed/cutoff low and its proximity to the Carolina coast. AIGFS deterministic runs line up with the AIFS ensemble solutions and favor a farther south and east development of the closed/cutoff low between the Southeast coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda (physics-based guidance favor its development immediately along the Carolina coast), which would favor less rain chances and cooler overnight and early morning lows Sun through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 840 PM Thursday... An area of MVFR stratus with CIGS of around 1.5kft continues to build southwest into NC from southeastern VA and northeastern NC. These low clouds will continue to spread across the northern/central Coastal Plain and the northeast Piedmont tonight. They will reach the KRWI terminal by 02Z and threaten the KRDU terminal between 05 and 07Z. The low clouds shouldn't make it into the Sandhills or the western Piedmont and the KGSO/KINT/KFAY terminals should stay VFR overnight and on Friday. The stratus should wane toward and after daybreak as the front lifts north and diurnal mixing commences with VFR conditions area wide by mid morning and continuing into the afternoon. A line of showers and associated VSBY and CIG restrictions may move into the Triad from the northwest at the end of the TAF period. Winds generally be light from the northeast to southeast overnight at 5kts or less. Winds will quickly increase on Friday morning and veer around to the southwest at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 16 to 22kts. Outlook: A cold front will trigger a broken and narrow line of showers and possibly some post frontal light rain that will move east across central NC on Friday evening and into the overnight hours with the potential for some VSBY and CIG restrictions, especially across northern areas. Behind the front winds will shift to northwesterly at 10 to 20 kts with some gusts up to 30 kts on Saturday. Gusty north winds are possible on Sunday before diminishing on Monday. There is a limited potential for a coastal low pressure area to develop early next week which could extend the period of gusty north winds and possibly bring some clouds/rain to eastern areas although the probabilities with this scenario are limited. -Blaes && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/AS AVIATION...Blaes