FXUS62 KRAH 160615 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 PM Thursday... 1) Near-record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near-record heat will continue through Friday. While a front across Virginia has dipped into north-eastern North Carolina, temperatures have still climbed into the 80s near the VA/NC border, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the area. As of 1pm, all three climate sites are within 5 degrees of their respective daily record highs, and records could be tied or surpassed over the next couple of hours. The front should retreat back into Virginia overnight, allowing for uniform low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A strong southwest wind on Friday will result in gusts between 20-30 mph, and will give one more chance to reach record highs between 85 and 90 degrees. While clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, it appears that any rain should hold off until after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a drastic pattern-shift this weekend and bring the greatest impact to the sensible weather, especially Fri night into Sat. This front will be driven by a deep surface low < 1000 mb racing across the Northeast Fri evening and equally, if not more so, anomalous surface high pressure exceeding 1035 mb diving into the southern Plains and elongating up into the Mid-MS Valley Sat afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to support a high-PoP/low-QPF signal as anafrontal showers/sprinkles appears likely, especially across the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain where strong FGEN through the lower/mid-lvls overlaps intense H5 height falls (> 100m falls in 12hrs) and DPVA. This pattern will also support the development of an narrow cold- frontal rainband (NCFR), which could result in a period of enhanced winds and wind gusts along and immediately behind the NCFR with rapid pressures rises in its wake. Momentum transfer at the top of the mixed layer in point soundings suggest gusts may reach in excess of 40 mph with the NCFR passage. NWP guidance continues to flip-flop on whether the basal portion of the strong mid/upper level trough will pinch off and become a closed/cutoff low and its proximity to the Carolina coast. AIGFS deterministic runs line up with the AIFS ensemble solutions and favor a farther south and east development of the closed/cutoff low between the Southeast coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda (physics-based guidance favor its development immediately along the Carolina coast), which would favor less rain chances and cooler overnight and early morning lows Sun through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Friday... A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. The nwd retreat of the front across the Middle Atlantic today should cause the overcast to disperse and lift around 12Z, with following VFR conditions and gusty swly winds that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by early this afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along a pre-frontal trough invof INT/GSO by ~21-22Z, then linger until a cold front and gusty nwly surface winds moves through cntl NC later this evening-tonight. Outlook: An area of stratiform, anafrontal rain will blossom behind the passing cold front later tonight into Sat, with related low VFR to MVFR restrictions, as an intense upper-level trough and jet streak pivot toward the Carolinas. Surface winds will veer to nly and remain strong and gusty especially during the daytime through the weekend, in s tight MSL pressure gradient between strong high pressure that will build in from the west and coastal low pressure that will deepen and meander of the coast of the Carolinas. Should surface winds diminish as expected each night, a risk of low-level wind shear will exist both Sat and Sun night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/AS AVIATION...MWS