FXUS62 KRAH 170116 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 915 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slightly increased POPs across eastern areas next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Friday... 1) A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. 2) Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. Although a band of convective showers could bring a brief period of precipitation this evening, a more widespread area of rain will move into central North Carolina late this evening into the overnight hours. Low pressure will develop along the front by Saturday morning, bringing the chance of rain to near 100% from the Triangle east for Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur Saturday morning, but rain will linger east of the Triad into the afternoon. While Thursday night's low temperatures were generally in the 60s, tonight's lows will be slightly colder, ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. However, it will not be possible to step outside Saturday and not notice the difference in temperatures from today. One or two isolated locations may manage to reach the 60s, but otherwise widespread 50s are forecast for Saturday's highs, with the return of sunshine likely by sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. In the wake of Saturday's cold front, a deep shortwave will swing across the region and stall roughly along the Carolina coast through at least the middle of next week. A strong 1034 mb surface high will build eastward across the Midwest, positioning itself adjacent to a coastal low that is expected to develop in response to the upper- level trough. This strong pressure gradient setup will maintain a steady and at times breezy north-northeasterly flow early in the week, along with a gradual increase in low-end rain chances each day, though exact details will depend heavily on the position and movement of the upper low. The airmass behind the front will support overnight lows in the 30s across the Piedmont, with potential for radiational cooling into the lower 30s. However, the tighter pressure gradient should maintain at least light stirring overnight Saturday and Sunday night, while high- level moisture wraps back around the upper low across central and eastern NC. Consequently, while temperatures may warrant a Frost Advisory with some temps in the mid-30s, it remains uncertain whether winds will fully decouple to allow for more widespread impacts. For the remainder of the week, weather impacts will be closely tied to the position of the upper low. The low looks to remain cut off from the primary westerlies and may drift south-southwestward late in the week as ridging attempts to build overtop of it into the central Appalachians. Operational guidance (GFS/ECMWF) remains west of the AI-based counterparts, though all agreeing better with the GEFS mean than the eastern-outlying EPS mean. Thus, confidence in sensible weather impacts remains somewhat low. Expect a gradual moderation in temperatures, though highs will remain below normal, along with increasing cloud cover, particularly over eastern counties. Latest guidance continues to support slight chance PoPs east of US-1 each day, which makes sense based onmodel trends and proximity of the upper low but overall weak forcing. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 900 PM Friday... TAF period: A strong cold front will move through central NC from NW to SE from about 01z to 08z. While wind gusts have diminished this evening, they will pick back up again to 15-25 kts along and behind the front, shifting from SW to N. The CAMS depict a band of convection moving through just ahead of the front, but they are overdone compared to what is on radar now, as isolated showers around INT/GSO have largely diminished, with any thunder and deeper convection just north of the VA border. The best chance for this would be around the Triad, but given a lack of instability, am skeptical there will be much precipitation until widespread light to moderate rain develops after around 06z from west to east as a potent shortwave aloft approaches. Widespread MVFR ceilings will also develop overnight, with a period of IFR likely in most places SE of the Triad on Saturday morning, possibly lingering into mid afternoon at FAY and RWI. Visibilities are likely to drop to MVFR (and potentially IFR at times) with the rain as well. VFR conditions and dry weather will return from NW to SE from mid afternoon into early evening. Northerly winds will also increase a bit further during the day, gusting up to 20-30 kts. Outlook: A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several days of intermittent showers at FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt will also be possible each afternoon, with the lowest gusts at INT/GSO and the highest gusts at RWI. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 (as of 2PM RDU has reached 87) KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/BLS AVIATION...Danco/Green