FXUS62 KRAH 180451 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor tweaks to highs and heat index values through Wednesday, although the message remains the same. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 1240 PM Sunday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with more seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1240 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. An unseasonably strong mid/low-level anticyclone and steep mid- level lapse rates (associated with a modified EML) sampled in the 12z RAOB data over Carolinas and portion of the Southeast, will keep conditions capped and void of precipitation amidst unseasonably moist deep-layer moisture in place. Warm temperatures though the mid/low-lvls will exceed the 90th percentile through at least Wednesday and support several days of hot conditions at the surface when temperatures should regularly eclipse 90 degrees by mid- afternoon. Given central NC's position within the described weather pattern above, there are minimal failure modes and reasonably high confidence in the forecast high temperatures through Wed. However, forecast confidence on mixing out of dew points in the afternoon is slightly lower and will result in fluctuations in the daily maximum heat index values. Leaning on experimental HeatRisk, widespread and prolonged Moderate Risk (level 2 out of 4) is expected through Wed. This level and duration of unseasonably warm temperatures will primarily affect anyone sensitive to the heat, but any outdoor activities in the sun during peak heating should be monitored closely for signs of heat exhaustion. Take breaks in the shade/indoors often and make sure adequate hydration is available. Reminder, the temperature forecast is the expected temperature in the shade and does not account for additive affects from direct sunlight. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) does take this into account, but is sensitive to incoming solar radiation, and wind speed. If you would like to know more, please see weather.gov/rah/wbgt for more information. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with more seasonable temperatures. The unseasonably strong ridge will gradually weaken and lose its grip on the Carolinas and portions of the Southeast as the mid/low-lvl anticyclone settles back over Bermuda by mid-week. The mid/upper level trough axis well become elongated across the CONUS as the northern wave progressively rides the International Border to the north and a southern portion gradually pinches off over southern Plains into the weekend. Our first chance for rain may come as early as Wed evening in the northwest Piedmont, but more likely Thurs into Fri as a weak to moderately unstable airmass will precede a backdoor cold front as it shifts across the area Thurs afternoon/evening. Showers and some isolated storms will be possible along the front, given favorable diurnal passage as of the latest forecast, with weak 925mb FGEN and low/mid-lvl WAA atop the front should support a period of light stratiform rain in its wake into Fri, potentially setting up a brief classical-CAD into Fri. The surface high will be very transitory across the northern Mid-Atlantic and should not sustain classical CAD into the weekend. Fri afternoon/night should see a transition back to a southerly flow regime. This should set the stage for a more typical early summertime pattern for diurnal showers/storms during the afternoon/evening focused around the sea-breeze and terrain circulations. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 AM Monday... TAF period: With high pressure offshore, the forecast should be quiet with VFR almost a certainty. The one exception will be around sunrise at FAY, where yesterday there was an MVFR ceiling for about 90 minutes, and vertical soundings show this should be a possibility again this morning. Otherwise, conditions should be mostly clear with southwest wind. Outlook: MVFR ceilings will be possible briefly at FAY and RWI Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, otherwise dry VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday. The chance of rain will increase from northwest to southeast Wednesday night, with restrictions and showers expected Thursday and Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911 May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018 May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...Green