FXUS62 KRAH 221747 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into Tuesday night. * Shower and storm chances return with higher humidity late next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 208 AM Saturday... 1) Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. 2) Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 208 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. Central NC continues to be in that moist and unstable pattern today. An upper-level trough will remain to our west through tonight as a shortwave dives southeastward into the Lower Great Lakes. Tied to that shortwave trough will be a surface cold front slated to move through portions of central NC by early Sunday morning. A surface front persists across our southern and eastern zones, and will be a continued focus for off and on isolated, to at times scattered, showers and storms this morning and afternoon to the early evening hours. However, confidence on overall coverage is not particularly high. Across the west, the approaching shortwave this evening, ahead of the cold front, will favor some isolated/scattered storm activity across the northwest Piedmont, perhaps holding together before dissipating east of the Triangle late tonight. Several HREF members indicate this potential in the 7pm to 1am time frame, though coverage may be quite isolated with timing being near sunset and slightly drier air working in from the west. If any storms can materialize, there is adequate deep shear of 30-35 kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms, just west of the Triad. We would not be surprised if that risk area is expanded eastward. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid- week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. A mid/upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United States Sunday into mid-week. This will mean cooler and drier weather for our region as surface high pressure builds from the Midwest Sunday to the mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and lows Sunday night in the 60s. Monday into Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with dew points dipping into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Some return moisture will raise the dew points back into mostly 60s by Wednesday. Daytime highs should top out in the 83-88 range each day with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s (north-central to SE). A chance of mainly PM showers/storms will return as early as Wednesday (20-30 percent), and more likely Thursday (40-60 percent chance). Highs will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s by late week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... MVFR stratocumulus ceilings will continue to lift and/or scatter to VFR this afternoon, with related warming and destabilization that will allow for widely scattered convection to develop with the approach of a mid/upr-level disturbance from ern TN. The relative highest probability of occurrence of convection, generally between 30-60 percent, will be at INT/GSO this evening. A moist airmass will otherwise remain in place over much of cntl NC and probably support the development of at least patchy fog and low stratus overnight-Sun morning, especially at ern terminals, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and move across cntl NC early Sun. Outlook: High pressure and associated dry, continental air will build across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic and favor mostly VFR conditions in cntl NC through Tue, before moisture and lift increase, and the chance of convection returns, by Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett AVIATION...MWS