FXUS62 KRAH 221815 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing significant && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 PM Saturday... 1) A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont). 2) Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 PM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont). Within a synoptic trough amplifying from cntl Canada to the srn Appalachians, a lead mid/upr-level impulse now over ern TN will pivot across the wrn Carolinas through this evening, then lift newd and across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic through early Sun. Related weak height falls (10-30 meters) and modest mid/level cooling 1-2 C at 500 mb) will result over cntl NC through tonight. At the surface, weak high pressure and divergence have been over cntl NC today, as have widespread low cloudiness and stability, between a pair of quiasi-stationary fronts draped across sern NC through cntl SC/GA and another over n-cntl VA. A separate surface cold front related to the approaching synoptic trough, now stretching from MI swwd into the mid MS Valley, will likely spread east of the Blue Ridge early Sun. The presence of the lingering high and stability over cntl NC will likely yield just a scattering of weak cells over cntl NC through this evening. The exception will be over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont), where the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cooling will be maximized and accompanied by an increase in mid/upr-level swly flow. Hodographs will consequently become elongated over the Piedmont through this evening, mostly above 5-6 km and with some counter-clockwise curvature. Cells there may locally strengthen and offer a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail given both the cooling mid-levels and a conditional risk of a few splitting cells (with left-moving ones favored). KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being Thursday. While the air won't be particularly moist Sunday morning, it should be noticeably drier later in the day as a cold front pushes through. While dewpoints may remain in the mid to upper 60s in the southeastern part of the forecast area by sunset, dewpoints should drop into the mid to upper 50s in the Triad, a pleasant change for late August. While the southern tip of Sampson County could see an isolated thunderstorm Sunday or Monday, the rest of the area will be dry. Sunday's cold front will hang up along the Gulf Coast for the first half of the week before pushing back to the north on Wednesday and Thursday, becoming nearly stationary over North Carolina. Expect a chance of showers/storms in all locations Wednesday, with the greatest chance occurring on Thursday. It appears that the front should then slide closer to the coast on Friday and Saturday, leaving more scattered precipitation coverage across central North Carolina on those two days. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... MVFR stratocumulus ceilings will continue to lift and/or scatter to VFR this afternoon, with related warming and destabilization that will allow for widely scattered convection to develop with the approach of a mid/upr-level disturbance from ern TN. The relative highest probability of occurrence of convection, generally between 30-60 percent, will be at INT/GSO this evening. A moist airmass will otherwise remain in place over much of cntl NC and probably support the development of at least patchy fog and low stratus overnight-Sun morning, especially at ern terminals, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and move across cntl NC early Sun. Outlook: High pressure and associated dry, continental air will build across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic and favor mostly VFR conditions in cntl NC through Tue, before moisture and lift increase, and the chance of convection returns, by Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/Green AVIATION...MWS