FXUS62 KRAH 231024 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 624 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing significant && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Sunday... 1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle 50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper 50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south. With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south and east Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high- end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5" between 8 AM Thurs to 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 624 AM Sunday... Patchy to areas of fog have developed across central NC. The lowest visibilities are presently found at FAY, though low stratus has extended as far west at GSO/INT. A surface cold front will move through this morning, scouring out the low-level moisture. But before that happens, LIFR/IFR conditions will be favored at FAY and possibly RWI. Confidence was too low to include these restrictions at RDU, but it cannot be ruled out. The latest satellite imagery reveals most of the sub-VFR visibilities and stratus are focused over the western Piedmont, southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. As the front moves through, winds will become west-northwest, with brief gusts this afternoon to 15-18 kt. A weak surface wave is becoming increasing favored to develop in SC overnight tonight, keeping low-level moisture in place across the eastern portion of central NC. A few isolated showers are possible near FAY, though the better chance is for LIFR conditions early Mon as moisture lingers over the eastern Sanhills and Coastal Plain. Outlook: Early morning fog/stratus will be possible Mon morning at FAY. A weak surface wave will promote a chance of isolated storms near FAY/RWI Monday. Moisture and lift increases midweek and the chance of convection returns area wide Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Kren