FXUS62 KRAH 231712 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Dense Fog Advisory expired at 9am. * A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Sunday... 1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle 50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper 50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south. With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south and east Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high- end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5" between 8 AM Thursto 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 PM Sunday... High confidence of fair weather and VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening hours across central NC, after midnight there's a limited chance of some scattered VSBY restrictions in the far southeast. Fog and stratus earlier this morning has lifted and mixed out yielding mainly clear skies with some areas of cumulus clouds early this afternoon. The cumulus are most widespread across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills in a region of lingering moisture with bases of 3-4kft with other cumulus clouds moving off the Blue Ridge into the Triad region. There is a very limited chance that a shower or thunderstorm could develop and move across Cumberland, Sampson and Wayne counties between 18 and 23Z, mainly southeast of the KFAY terminal but the probabilities are 15% or less and will exclude from the TAF. Quiet and dry weather is expected this evening with mainly clear skies and no restrictions. While most of central NC will have no restrictions overnight, there is a limited, perhaps 20-30% chance of some shallow flog to develop across the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain overnight. Confidence is limited and the only terminal potentially impacted would be the KFAY terminal with the best chances of restrictions from 08 to 12Z. An upper air disturbance will approach the area on Monday and could trigger a rogue shower or storm across the Coastal Plain on Tuesday afternoon. A southeast advancing but slowing cold front has move into the Coastal Plain and the winds across central NC have largely become northwest at 5 to 10kts. A few gusts of 15-18 kts are possible this afternoon, mainly in the northern Piedmont and especially in the Triad. Winds will decrease early this evening and be light for much of the night if not becoming calm toward daybreak. Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Blaes