FXUS62 KRAH 231801 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Sunday... 1) The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain. 2) There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor. 3) Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain. The latest surface analysis shows the slow moving cold front now located across the eastern Coastal Plain with northwest winds across all of the area including at Fayetteville, Goldsboro and Clinton. Drier air has been filtering into the region thanks to a northwest or westerly flow in the low levels. The RAOB at KGSO this morning noted a PW of only 0.94 inches which is around the 18th percentile. The drier air combined with good mixing has allowed dew points to fall into the upper 50s at KINT, KGSO, KEXX, and KHNZ and the lower 60s across most of the remainder of the Piedmont. Further east and southeast across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills moisture lingers with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. This has resulted in a bit more cumulus clouds and perhaps a little vertical growth near and just behind the front from Maxton to just southeast of Fayetteville to just south of Goldsboro. Wouldn't be shocked if a rogue shower or storm develop near or east of this line through around 6pm but the coverage and intensity should be very limited and more favored to the east. Generally fair weather is expected overnight with a northwest to westerly flow aloft, An approaching mid level disturbance may trigger a weak area of low pressure to develop in the Carolinas overnight on the front, or at least buckle the front and the moisture back west slightly. Some of the CAMs, primarily the HRRR suggest a rogue shower could develop late tonight across southern or southeastern areas, there is very little support for this in the other CAM guidance so will exclude any overnight PoPs. There could be some patchy fog or low stratus across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain toward day break as well. Lows tonight should range in the lower 60s in the Triad and VA border counties, with mid 60s in the Triangle and southern Piedmont and the upper 60s in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Could see a few upper 50s in the typically colder spots such as Henderson and Sanford. These lows range from 1 to 4 degrees below average. Even more notable will be the dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s which will result in a much more pleasant morning for the first day of school in many locations. KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor. The cold front moving across central North Carolina today will become hung up along the Atlantic coastline tonight into Tuesday. The bulk of the convection that will occur Monday will be along the immediate coastline, but models have inched the western edge of the precipitation slightly farther to the west than they were yesterday. Other than around Fayetteville, it still appears that nearly all precipitation that occurs should remain east of I-95, and chances for storms are anywhere between 20-40%. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms along the coastline, just clipping the southern tip of Sampson County. Again, it is along the coastline where the greatest instability and wind shear will remain. Key Message 3: Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3... The front will inch northward Wednesday and Thursday, eventually extending from Elizabeth City to Monroe. The chance of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon should generally be to the southeast of the Triangle, although all locations are likely to see at least some minimal precipitation Thursday. As the front retreats back to the coastline for the weekend, precipitation will become more scattered, but locations in the southeast will have higher chances of rain than locations in the northwest. Temperatures should be near normal for late August, with highs around 90 and lows around 70. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 PM Sunday... High confidence of fair weather and VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening hours across central NC, after midnight there's a limited chance of some scattered VSBY restrictions in the far southeast. Fog and stratus earlier this morning has lifted and mixed out yielding mainly clear skies with some areas of cumulus clouds early this afternoon. The cumulus are most widespread across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills in a region of lingering moisture with bases of 3-4kft with other cumulus clouds moving off the Blue Ridge into the Triad region. There is a very limited chance that a shower or thunderstorm could develop and move across Cumberland, Sampson and Wayne counties between 18 and 23Z, mainly southeast of the KFAY terminal but the probabilities are 15% or less and will exclude from the TAF. Quiet and dry weather is expected this evening with mainly clear skies and no restrictions. While most of central NC will have no restrictions overnight, there is a limited, perhaps 20-30% chance of some shallow flog to develop across the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain overnight. Confidence is limited and the only terminal potentially impacted would be the KFAY terminal with the best chances of restrictions from 08 to 12Z. An upper air disturbance will approach the area on Monday and could trigger a rogue shower or storm across the Coastal Plain on Tuesday afternoon. A southeast advancing but slowing cold front has move into the Coastal Plain and the winds across central NC have largely become northwest at 5 to 10kts. A few gusts of 15-18 kts are possible this afternoon, mainly in the northern Piedmont and especially in the Triad. Winds will decrease early this evening and be light for much of the night if not becoming calm toward daybreak. Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Blaes/Green AVIATION...Blaes