FXUS65 KREV 160925 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 225 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with east to southeast breezes this afternoon. * Increasing south to southwest winds may elevate fire concerns and pose impacts to recreation and travel on Monday. * Chances of rain and mountain snow increases between Tuesday and Thursday, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... East to northeast winds remain strong early this morning along the Sierra crest where gusts of 50-60 mph are noted in 1 AM surface obs. Ridge winds are expected to remain elevated through the morning, but should gradually weaken as the morning progresses. Elsewhere, breezy E/SE winds develop this afternoon with gusts of 25-30 mph posing minor fire concerns in far NE California and NW Nevada. Otherwise, a warm and dry pattern will be in place through the weekend with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s each day through Sunday. A deepening eastern Pacific trough will encourage gusty south to southwest winds Monday afternoon when there is a moderate to high probability of 30+ mph wind gusts. These winds and low humidity will support areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon, along with impacts to recreation and air/ground travel. Chances of rain and mountain snow increase between Tuesday and Thursday, but differences in trough evolution makes this a lower confidence forecast. Latest blended guidance does favor areas south of I-80 where chances (50-70%) are higher, but exact timing and amounts are still uncertain for now. -Salas && .AVIATION... Easterly FL100 winds of 30-35 kt will maintain mountain wave turbulence concerns along and west of the Sierra crest through 15Z this morning. E/SE surface gusts up to 15 kts are expected this afternoon at all area terminals. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR conditions to prevail through the weekend. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$