FXUS61 KRLX 081924 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 324 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded fog coverage for tonight, but otherwise, the forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding going forward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed today along a lingering surface boundary. Steering flow remains light today, at 10 knots or less, resulting in a slow movement of activity, with localized totals of 1-2" already observed in some areas. Activity should begin to gradually decrease towards/after sunset, with an additional round possible later tonight into Thursday morning as a shortwave moves overhead, as well as additional diurnal development Thursday afternoon/evening. After a somewhat quieter Thursday night, the most widespread rainfall is expected Friday and Saturday as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and a more robust shortwave crosses overtop on Friday, with another approaching late Saturday. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the forecast area through Thursday, with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall Friday and Saturday. Given the scattered coverage of activity today into Thursday and low confidence in placement of heaviest rainfall, have opted to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch. This will however continue to be monitored going forward. While organized severe weather is not currently anticipated, given progged Mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg most afternoons, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out. The hazard associated with any heavy storms would be strong winds via collapsing cores. Drier weather attempts to build into the area late this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the area this afternoon, providing brief MVFR/IFR restrictions at times. This trend is expected to continue through the evening, with activity gradually diminishing after sunset, with the potential for another developing round later tonight into Thursday morning. More widespread restrictions are expected tonight with developing fog and/or stratus, with LIFR or worse progged for most terminals. Fog/stratus gradually lifts/dissipates through ~ 12 to 14Z, with MVFR CIGs possible thereafter with developing diurnal Cu. MVFR VSBY restrictions are also possible with any heavier showers or storms. Light and variable flow is expected today, going calm in most areas tonight. Light west-southwest flow develops on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning with fog, stratus, and additional rainfall will vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L= LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...GW