FXUS61 KRLX 090419 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1219 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dense fog is possible early this morning, especially at locations receiving rainfall last afternoon and evening. Expect a cumulus deck to form by mid morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions this afternoon and evening. Wind and clouds Thursday night could prevent fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low with fog in the western areas, otherwise medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and density of fog early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/09/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H L L M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M L H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY