FXUS61 KRLX 091806 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to cause brief MVFR or worse VSBY restrictions and brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon/evening, along with the potential for gusty winds. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated tonight, with the potential for very patchy fog (east/south) and some stratus that could produce MVFR/IFR in spots. Overall, confidence in restrictions tonight is on the lower side. Another round of showers and storms moves into the area Friday morning into the afternoon, with additional MVFR CIG restrictions expected, along with brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Light west-southwest to southwest flow is expected throughout the TAF period. Brief gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions tonight with fog and/or stratus may be worse than currently progged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. &&$$ DISCUSSION...RPY/GW AVIATION...GW