FXUS61 KRLX 091916 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area until 8 AM Sunday morning given rounds of showers and storms throughout this period, heavy at times. 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area until 8 AM Sunday morning. Flooding potential will be greatest on Friday and Saturday. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds remain possible each day during the afternoon/evening hours through Saturday. 2) Drier weather returns Sunday night into the beginning of the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the region this afternoon as a modest shortwave traverses across the area. Shower/storm motion is fairly progressive, but given rates of 1"+ per hour, localized flash flooding is possible given any training of convection. Activity should begin to steadily dissipate later this evening, with mainly dry conditions overnight, although some showers could move in late tonight across the west and north. A bit of patchy fog is possible across southern/eastern WV depending on clearing. The most widespread rainfall is expected on Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and a more robust shortwave crosses overtop. Motion of showers/storms given H850 flow should be similar to that of today, but with perhaps a bit more training potential. Another crossing shortwave on Saturday combined with the lingering surface boundary will result in more showers and storms, but perhaps a bit further south, across the central/southern CWA. Rainfall on Sunday should mainly be confined to the eastern/southern portion of the CWA as the surface boundary continues to slide southward, with mainly dry weather Sunday night into early next week. Given the locally heavy rainfall yesterday (1-2" in some areas), anticipated additional rounds of rainfall, and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Flood Watch for flash flooding through 8 AM Sunday for much of the CWA. While organized severe weather is not anticipated, given progged mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg each afternoon/evening and modest 0-6km shear, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out. The hazard associated with any heavy storms would be strong wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2... Building high pressure from the north and east following the passage of a cold front late this weekend will result in a much drier Sunday night and start to the new work week. Near seasonable temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to cause brief MVFR or worse VSBY restrictions and brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon/evening, along with the potential for gusty winds. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated tonight, with the potential for very patchy fog (east/south) and some stratus that could produce MVFR/IFR in spots. Overall, confidence in restrictions tonight is on the lower side. Another round of showers and storms moves into the area Friday morning into the afternoon, with additional MVFR CIG restrictions expected, along with brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Light west-southwest to southwest flow is expected throughout the TAF period. Brief gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions tonight with fog and/or stratus may be worse than currently progged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...GW